Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Gulf of Mexico oil spill hits Louisiana coast

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:27 PM GMT on April 30, 2010

The oil slick from the ruptured well due to the April 20 explosion and sinking of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon has reached the Louisiana coast near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Strong southeasterly winds blowing at 20 - 25 knots will continue through Sunday, which will push a large amount of oil onto most of the eastern Louisiana coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River northwards to the Mississippi border. It is likely that the Mississippi coast will see the arrival of oil by Saturday night or Sunday. On Monday, the winds shift to southwesterly, but weaken. The wind shift will allow oil to move eastwards towards Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but at just 1 mph or so. The winds remain southwesterly through Tuesday, which should allow the oil to reach Alabama by Monday and possibly the extreme western Florida Panhandle by Tuesday. On Tuesday night, a cold front is expected to move over the Gulf of Mexico, bringing offshore northwesterly winds. These offshore winds will last for two days and blow the oil slick 5 - 10 miles offshore. High pressure is expected to build in late next week, bringing relatively light offshore winds that should cause little transport of the oil spill for the final portion of next week.

Figure 1. The oil spill on April 29, 2010, as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra spacecraft. A tendril of oil is beginning to touch the Mississippi River "bird's foot" in Louisiana. Sun glint on the water at this hour happened to be just at the right angle to light up the spill dramatically. Image credit: University of Wisconsin.

Oil continues to gush from the well head at 5,000 feet depth at a rate five times what was previously estimated--210,000 gallons per day. This is equivalent to about 2% of the total spilled oil from America's worst oil spill, the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster in Alaska, entering the Gulf of Mexico each day. If 210,000 gallons per day has been leaking since the disaster began on April 20, over 2 million gallons of oil has already been spewed into the Gulf, about 20% of the 11,000,000 gallons spilled in the Exxon Valdez disaster.

Figure 2. Previous location and forecast location for today of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration.

Oil a long-range threat to southwest and southeast Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas
The surface ocean currents that transport the oil are driven by the wind and by the large scale ocean current structure of the Gulf of Mexico. The latest surface ocean current forecast (Figure 3) from NOAA's RTOFS model shows a complicated current structure along the Gulf Coast over the next seven days. By Tuesday night, when the winds shift to northwesterly (offshore), the forecast calls for surface currents of about 1 m/s (roughly 2 mph) to transport oil to the southeast from the site of the blowout. There is a danger that the oil thus transported could make it all the way south to the Loop Current, since offshore winds are now expected to last Tuesday through Friday of next week. The warm Loop Current enters the Gulf from the south and loops around to the southeast to exit through the Florida Keys, where it becomes the Gulf Stream. Oil caught in the Loop Current would move relatively rapidly at 2 - 4 mph to the southeast and then eastwards through the Keys, potentially fouling beaches in the Keys, northwest Cuba, the southwest and southeast coasts of Florida, and the western Bahamas. I don't think the spill will be able to make it into the Loop Current next week, since it has to travel about 120 miles south-southeast from the blowout location to reach the Loop Current. The duration and strength of next week's offshore winds are probably capable of pushing the oil slick only half way to the Loop Current. However, that may be close enough so that the oil will reach the Loop Current the following week, unless strong onshore winds develop again. The long range wind forecast is too uncertain to put odds on the possibilities at this point. If the oil keeps spewing from the ocean floor for many months, though, eventually a wind pattern will set up that will take the oil into the Loop Current. This would most likely happen if a persistent trough of low pressure settles over the East Coast in May, or if a tropical storm makes landfall along the Florida Panhandle this summer. Any oil that does make it into the Loop Current will suffer significant dispersion before it makes landfall in Cuba, Florida, or the Bahamas, and far less oil will foul these shores compared to what the Louisiana coast is experiencing this weekend.

Figure 3. Surface ocean current forecast for 8pm EDT Tuesday, May 4 from the NOAA's RTOFS model run made at 8 pm EDT on Wednesday, April 28, 2010. Note that on Tuesday, northwest winds are expected to create surface currents of about 1 m/s (roughly 2 mph) from the site of the spill towards the southeast. It is possible that these currents will be strong enough to transport oil far enough south that it will enter the Loop Current, which would then transport the oil into northwest Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South Florida.

Next post
I'll probably do an update this weekend. Keep an eye on the severe weather threat in the Plains today and over the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Saturday. Our severe weather expert, Dr. Rob Carver, shows a few nice radar images of yesterday's strongest storms, which generated five tornadoes.

Jeff Masters

Boom are set-out (taco2me61)

Alabama is ready for the Crude that will be coming ashore sometime this weekend.... We have companies from Maine to Virginia here on the Gulf Coast putting out those Booms.....

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302. WaterWitch11 07:47 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting truecajun: no one ever answers me here. you have to ask people directly and it's better to ask more than one. i use to have that problem in the beginning. Member Since: Augusti 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1266

303. Stormchaser2007 07:47 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer: Disturbing. Indeed. Member Since: Juni 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

305. hydrus 07:51 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting truecajun: no one ever answers me here. Yes. It does look like the panhandle will have oil on there beaches. Where and how much is up in the air because of the the change in the weather. How soon will they seal the well? Who really knows. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14306

306. Patrap 07:52 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Louisiana Oil Rig Explosion Dr. Erica Miller, right, and Danene Birtell with Tri-State Bird Rescue and Research work to give a dose of Pepto-Bismol to a Northern Gannet bird, normally white when full grown, which is covered in oil from a massive spill in the Gulf of Mexico, at a facility in Fort Jackson, La., Friday, April 30, 2010.(AP Photo/Alex Brandon) Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111588

307. atmoaggie 07:53 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: I wonder about the detergents and dispersants used on petroleum spills. In some cases, like the Torrey Canyon spill off Great Britain, the detergents did more damage than the oil did. Of course that was in 1967, so a lot has been learned. However, I've heard for years about petroleum-eating bacteria. Here's a 5-year old link from Science Daily: Link I haven't heard anything about petroleum-eating microbes being used for this spill. Are petroleum-eating bacteria a real possible solution, or are such bacteria just an idea with a great future, and always will be? More (links from your link): Oil Spill Clean-Up Agents Threaten Coral Reefs Cleaning Up Oil Spills Can Kill More Fish Than Spills Themselves Hmm, maybe we should invite some Razorback fans down for a visit...(they have a lot of chickens in razorback country)...could bring in Gamecocks, too...you know, from the Carolinas. Chicken Manure Biodegrades Crude Oil In Contaminated Soil Member Since: Augusti 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

308. truecajun 07:53 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting NOLABean: truecajun - Navarre is beautiful and we like to go there too. I think it's just too soon to say how far east the slick will effect and when since no one knows for sure how long the spill will persist at this rate and what weather patterns will do to it :( Preparing for the worst and hoping for the best is the rule of thumb at this point, IMO. i just can't even imagine those beautiful aqua and white beaches with oil on them Member Since: Augusti 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

309. Patrap 07:55 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
BH939 May 17, 2007 Eco-friendly NASA technology being applied by Universal Remediation of Pittsburgh to clean up oil spills using only biodegradable beeswax or soy wax! Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111588

310. CybrTeddy 07:55 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Indeed. Stronger TCHP in the Caribbean than in 2005, much stronger actually. Member Since: Juli 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20259

311. truecajun 07:55 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
FOX news just reported a 5.0 earthquake in Napa Valley Member Since: Augusti 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

312. taco2me61 07:56 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
EarthQuake just hit Northern CA in the Napa area.... 5.0 more to come on this Member Since: Juli 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763

313. truecajun 07:56 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
off to do yard work. thanks for your replies. Member Since: Augusti 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

314. tropicaltank 07:56 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
My home is the Gulfport/Biloxi area.It appears that we will not be able to escape this disaster.I think that the only thing that could make the situation worse,would be the development of a system in the gulf,in conjunction with the oil spill. Any thoughts? Member Since: Juni 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 242

315. Patrap 07:57 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Maybe the Mayan were right.. Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111588

316. truecajun 07:58 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
oh, just one more thought. patrap, you may be able to shed some light on this. would opening the spillway do any good to push the oil back a bit? i'm not very familiar with the way all the waterways work together down there. just a thought. Member Since: Augusti 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

317. Beachfoxx 07:59 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
LOL thanks for that! I needed a chuckle. Quoting Patrap: Maybe the Mayan were right.. Member Since: Juli 10, 2005 Posts: 153 Comments: 29285

318. taco2me61 07:59 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting Patrap: Maybe the Mayan were right.. ???? Member Since: Juli 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763

319. truecajun 08:00 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting taco2me61: ???? you know that 2012 the world will end with building up disasters (quakes, hurricanes, etc etc) Member Since: Augusti 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

320. Patrap 08:01 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Orleans Forecasts for Louisiana Return to U.S. Severe Weather Current Severe Weather Coastal Flood Watch Statement as of 11:04 AM CDT on April 30, 2010 ... Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect through Sunday evening... Persons along the coast should closely monitor the latest forecasts and statements regarding this potential episode of coastal flooding. Be prepared to take appropriate actions to protect life and property if coastal flood warnings are issued later this week and over the weekend. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to protect property. 24/rr Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111588

321. taco2me61 08:02 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting truecajun: you know that 2012 the world will end with building up disasters (quakes, hurricanes, etc etc) oh ok missed that..... Having a Blonde momment Taco :o) Member Since: Juli 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763

322. truecajun 08:04 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting taco2me61: oh ok missed that..... Having a Blonde momment Taco :o) it was some sort of prediction they made. i think it was in carvings in caves. Member Since: Augusti 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

323. hydrus 08:05 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting Patrap: Maybe the Mayan were right.. Maybe its time to have a heart to heart with Ah Uuc Ticab ( Mayan God of the Earth ). Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14306

324. truecajun 08:05 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
rather it has been interpreted as a prediction Member Since: Augusti 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

326. Nolehead 08:06 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
just got out of the water "nice little swell" but the tourist that i spoke with had no idea about what was coming?? i couldn't believe it..but, now they know and they are concerened....the locals are pulling there boats out as we speak... Member Since: Juni 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1919

327. AstroHurricane001 08:07 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
The oil spill is approaching two major Wildlife Refuges in Louisiana. Member Since: Augusti 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

329. IKE 08:08 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Above normal temps in the SE USA. 6-10 day temperature outlook... 8-14 day temperature outlook... Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

330. Bordonaro 08:11 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
SPC expanded the MDT BOX: Member Since: Augusti 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

331. Floodman 08:11 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting truecajun: it was some sort of prediction they made. i think it was in carvings in caves. If you're talking about the Mayans, it was carved into the long count calendar, above ground and repeated in a number of their cities (the largest on earth at the time) Member Since: Augusti 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

332. NttyGrtty 08:16 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting Nolehead: just got out of the water "nice little swell" but the tourist that i spoke with had no idea about what was coming?? i couldn't believe it..but, now they know and they are concerened....the locals are pulling there boats out as we speak... East of you, I pulled my boat for regular maintenance last weekend. I was going back in tomorrow but I'm going to wait to see what happens. Big bike event in Panama City this weekend. We'll see if it is affected... Member Since: Februari 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 664

333. IKE 08:16 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Buoy 207 NM east of Brownsville,TX.... "5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts 5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts 5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 6.6 ft 5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec 5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.5 sec 5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 106 deg true ) 5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.54 in 5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling ) 5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.6 °F 5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 77.7 °F" Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

334. tkeith 08:17 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Hmm, maybe we should invite some Razorback fans down for a visit...(they have a lot of chickens in razorback country)... I resemble that remark... Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

336. hydrus 08:18 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting Floodman: If you're talking about the Mayans, it was carved into the long count calendar, above ground and repeated in a number of their cities (the largest on earth at the time) The Mayan calendar is extremely accurate. It certainly has the attention of a lot of people. How is the back Flood ? Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14306

337. Nolehead 08:22 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WHILE INTERACTING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS THE FACT THAT THE REGION IS MOVING INTO A SPRING TIDAL CYCLE...WHICH MEANS ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AREA TIDE PREDICTIONS AT THE TIME OF MID AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES RANGE BETWEEN 1.6 TO NEAR 2 FEET. THE HIGHER PREDICTED TIDES ARE NEAR THE MOUTH OF RIVERS IN MOBILE BAY...WHICH ARE VERY NEAR 2 FEET. AS THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT AND PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WATER LEVELS WILL RISE ALONG AREA BAYS AND WATERWAY SHORELINES...PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES AND BEACHES. ALONG BARRIER ISLANDS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUNUP ON THE OCEAN SIDE WILL ALSO CAUSE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS. WHEN TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS (ASTRONOMICAL PLUS EFFECTS RELATED TO ONSHORE WINDS)...REACH 3 FEET...NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING BEGINS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE OLD MOBILE CAUSEWAY ACROSS MOBILE BAY AND THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND...WEST OF PORTER STREET ON BIENVILLE BOULEVARD. FORT PICKENS STATE PARK IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA IS ALSO PRONE TO COASTAL FLOODING. EAST OF THE MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY...TIDAL PREDICTIONS ARE A BIT LOWER SO COASTAL FLOODING PROBABILITIES ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER...ESPECIALLY FROM ESCAMBIA BAY EAST TO CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE TO SEE TOTAL HEIGHTS REACH 3.5 TO 4.5 FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOKED AREA AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SITUATION SHOULD RESULT IN NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THIS COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. SO...STAY TUNED TO INTERNET SOURCES OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS. PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY Member Since: Juni 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1919

339. PcolaDan 08:27 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting hydrus: The Mayan calendar is extremely accurate. It certainly has the attention of a lot of people. How is the back Flood ? It's been a long time since he carved that calendar, so his back should be better by now. Member Since: Augusti 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

340. atmoaggie 08:28 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting PcolaDan: It's been a long time since he carved that calendar, so his back should be better by now. Zing! Member Since: Augusti 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

341. hydrus 08:30 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting PcolaDan: It's been a long time since he carved that calendar, so his back should be better by now. Healing slows with age Dan, I was concerned with the speed of his recovery. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14306

342. Patrap 08:31 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Be careful what ya say.., Floodman iz a Real True to Life Hurracan' God To tempt his wrath on a Friday almost May1 UTC,..is A BAD Idea.. Mojo wise dat iz. And on a Jazz Fest Friday.. Sheesh,Double Bad. Al Hail Tewohnacun Flood!! Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111588

343. hydrus 08:35 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting Patrap: Be careful what ya say.., Floodman iz a Real True to Life Hurracan' God To tempt his wrath on a Friday almost May1 UTC,..is A BAD Idea.. Mojo wise dat iz. And on a Jazz Fest Friday.. Sheesh,Double Bad. Al Hail Tewohnacun Flood!! Ya sound like Wolfman Jack Pat... Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14306

344. Patrap 08:36 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
NWS NOLA Discussion earlier,12:30 CDT Winds on the Lake Pontchartrain and at msy are slightly stronger than GFS...more in line with NAM wind speeds so far. At pql...wind speeds are higher than NAM and GFS...both models show winds around 8 knots for pql from 06 to 12z. Wind speeds were around 11 knots at pql this morning. These observations higher than models will likely continue through today. In addition...tide levels at Waveland did not fall completely out at low tide due to the slightly higher wind speeds and the water level is a half foot higher than forecasted this morning. As a result...tide levels of 2 feet above normal is expected along the coast through this noon time astronomical high tide...2 to 3 feet along Hancock County coastline. Will upgrade Hancock from a coastal Flood Watch to a warning this morning. Strong warm advection will create an unstable atmosphere. Positively tilted upper level trough...from the northern plains to Arizona... will slowly inch east with the disturbances remaining northwest of the forecast area today and tonight. However...an increase in precipitable water from less than an inch Thursday night to 1.8 inches area wide by this afternoon and surf heating will create some convection by this afternoon. With the approach of the main trough...a surf low will develop over south Texas thus maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the Gulf Saturday and Sunday. Bl winds actually from around 23 knots today to 28 to 34 knots over extreme north Gulf Saturday and Sunday. As a result...coastal Flood Warning may be expanded over the weekend. In addition...atmosphere will remain unstable with precipitable water values around 1.7 inches and convection is possible Saturday. The main trough will move east to the Mississippi Valley Sunday and pool moisture ahead of the axis from Memphis to Lake Charles. By Sunday morning...precipitable water values increase up to 2.2 inches across the entire forecast area Sunday. Ergo...expanded likely rain chances most of the forecast area and increased rainfall to 1 to 1 and half inches Sunday through Monday. According to GFS...cold front will enter the forecast late Sunday night with cold air advection occurring across the north zones. Will not be that aggressive with lowering temperatures Monday morning...but did shave temperatures a tad for Monday morning. A lingering boundary may keep convection across Mississippi coast and east zones Monday. A short wave will push through and overtake this old system Tuesday...thus diminishing rain chances Tuesday night. Dry forecast should hold for the remainder of the forecast. Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111588

346. Floodman 08:37 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting hydrus: The Mayan calendar is extremely accurate. It certainly has the attention of a lot of people. How is the back Flood ? Not bad, all things being equal... Member Since: Augusti 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

347. Floodman 08:39 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting Patrap: Be careful what ya say.., Floodman iz a Real True to Life Hurracan' God To tempt his wrath on a Friday almost May1 UTC,..is A BAD Idea.. Mojo wise dat iz. And on a Jazz Fest Friday.. Sheesh,Double Bad. Al Hail Tewohnacun Flood!! Hey, if it keeps us from bein' blasted by lightning or some such, I'm right there...you going to Jazzfest, bro? Member Since: Augusti 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

348. xcool 08:39 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
FRIDAY 2 PM RAPID GULF WARM-UP OCCURRING The link below shows the Gulf relative to averages one month ago: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomw.3.29.2010.gif This link shows the current status (notice the evidence of a healthy LOOP current)... http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwnc.gif Here was the Gulf (and surrounding areas) in 2005... http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2005/anomnight.4.30.2005.gif In fact, one may argue that the ocean this year looks as ripe, or even more ripe, in the Atlantic than '05 with the El Nino this year every bit as faded already as that year... http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.4.29.2010.gif The similarities are striking to say the least. by joe Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

349. saintsfan06 08:40 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Any new photos by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra spacecraft available. Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 164

350. Patrap 08:40 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Quoting Floodman: Hey, if it keeps us from bein' blasted by lightning or some such, I'm right there...you going to Jazzfest, bro? U betcha!,Oil permitting Sunday for Van Morrison.. Brown Eye Gurl,.. Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111588

351. xcool 08:43 PM GMT on April 30, 2010
Raleigh Weather Examiner now go look at my blog tell me what you see hmmmm.?? I think that the greatest risk of landfalls this season will be over the central Gulf area. I think most of the Florida peninsula, Texas, and the southeast coast have a normal to above chance of a landfall but not as good a chance with respect to normal as the central Gulf. Keep in mind though, that if my predicted number of 18 storms comes to past, the sheer increase in the number of storms increases the risk of a landfall for everyone. Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

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