Gulf of Mexico oil spill hits Louisiana coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:27 PM GMT on April 30, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

The oil slick from the ruptured well due to the April 20 explosion and sinking of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon has reached the Louisiana coast near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Strong southeasterly winds blowing at 20 - 25 knots will continue through Sunday, which will push a large amount of oil onto most of the eastern Louisiana coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River northwards to the Mississippi border. It is likely that the Mississippi coast will see the arrival of oil by Saturday night or Sunday. On Monday, the winds shift to southwesterly, but weaken. The wind shift will allow oil to move eastwards towards Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but at just 1 mph or so. The winds remain southwesterly through Tuesday, which should allow the oil to reach Alabama by Monday and possibly the extreme western Florida Panhandle by Tuesday. On Tuesday night, a cold front is expected to move over the Gulf of Mexico, bringing offshore northwesterly winds. These offshore winds will last for two days and blow the oil slick 5 - 10 miles offshore. High pressure is expected to build in late next week, bringing relatively light offshore winds that should cause little transport of the oil spill for the final portion of next week.


Figure 1. The oil spill on April 29, 2010, as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra spacecraft. A tendril of oil is beginning to touch the Mississippi River "bird's foot" in Louisiana. Sun glint on the water at this hour happened to be just at the right angle to light up the spill dramatically. Image credit: University of Wisconsin.

Oil continues to gush from the well head at 5,000 feet depth at a rate five times what was previously estimated--210,000 gallons per day. This is equivalent to about 2% of the total spilled oil from America's worst oil spill, the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster in Alaska, entering the Gulf of Mexico each day. If 210,000 gallons per day has been leaking since the disaster began on April 20, over 2 million gallons of oil has already been spewed into the Gulf, about 20% of the 11,000,000 gallons spilled in the Exxon Valdez disaster.


Figure 2. Previous location and forecast location for today of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration.

Oil a long-range threat to southwest and southeast Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas
The surface ocean currents that transport the oil are driven by the wind and by the large scale ocean current structure of the Gulf of Mexico. The latest surface ocean current forecast (Figure 3) from NOAA's RTOFS model shows a complicated current structure along the Gulf Coast over the next seven days. By Tuesday night, when the winds shift to northwesterly (offshore), the forecast calls for surface currents of about 1 m/s (roughly 2 mph) to transport oil to the southeast from the site of the blowout. There is a danger that the oil thus transported could make it all the way south to the Loop Current, since offshore winds are now expected to last Tuesday through Friday of next week. The warm Loop Current enters the Gulf from the south and loops around to the southeast to exit through the Florida Keys, where it becomes the Gulf Stream. Oil caught in the Loop Current would move relatively rapidly at 2 - 4 mph to the southeast and then eastwards through the Keys, potentially fouling beaches in the Keys, northwest Cuba, the southwest and southeast coasts of Florida, and the western Bahamas. I don't think the spill will be able to make it into the Loop Current next week, since it has to travel about 120 miles south-southeast from the blowout location to reach the Loop Current. The duration and strength of next week's offshore winds are probably capable of pushing the oil slick only half way to the Loop Current. However, that may be close enough so that the oil will reach the Loop Current the following week, unless strong onshore winds develop again. The long range wind forecast is too uncertain to put odds on the possibilities at this point. If the oil keeps spewing from the ocean floor for many months, though, eventually a wind pattern will set up that will take the oil into the Loop Current. This would most likely happen if a persistent trough of low pressure settles over the East Coast in May, or if a tropical storm makes landfall along the Florida Panhandle this summer. Any oil that does make it into the Loop Current will suffer significant dispersion before it makes landfall in Cuba, Florida, or the Bahamas, and far less oil will foul these shores compared to what the Louisiana coast is experiencing this weekend.


Figure 3. Surface ocean current forecast for 8pm EDT Tuesday, May 4 from the NOAA's RTOFS model run made at 8 pm EDT on Wednesday, April 28, 2010. Note that on Tuesday, northwest winds are expected to create surface currents of about 1 m/s (roughly 2 mph) from the site of the spill towards the southeast. It is possible that these currents will be strong enough to transport oil far enough south that it will enter the Loop Current, which would then transport the oil into northwest Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South Florida.

Next post
I'll probably do an update this weekend. Keep an eye on the severe weather threat in the Plains today and over the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Saturday. Our severe weather expert, Dr. Rob Carver, shows a few nice radar images of yesterday's strongest storms, which generated five tornadoes.

Jeff Masters

Boom are set-out (taco2me61)
Alabama is ready for the Crude that will be coming ashore sometime this weekend.... We have companies from Maine to Virginia here on the Gulf Coast putting out those Booms.....
Boom are set-out

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 848 - 798

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23Blog Index

Deepwater-Horizon-Response FACEBOOK
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609

BP Oil Spill Incident Response Site

Gulf of Mexico - Deepwater Horizon Incident

DATE: May 01, 2010 10:46:42 CST
CORRECTION:UPDATE: 14 Deepwater Horizon update

*The number to report affected wildlife is (866)-557-1401

ROBERT, La. — The unified command continues with a comprehensive oil-well intervention and spill-response plan following the April 22 sinking of the Transocean Deepwater Horizon drilling rig 130 miles southeast of New Orleans. Nearly 2,000 personnel are involved in the response effort with additional resources being mobilized as needed. The federal government has been fully engaged in the response since the incident occurred April 20.

The Minerals Management Service remains in contact with all oil and gas operators in the sheen area. Two platforms have stopped production and one has been evacuated as a safety measure. Approximately 6.2 million cubic feet of natural gas is shut-in. This is less than one-tenth of a percent of daily gas production in the Gulf of Mexico.

Response crews worked through the night using a ROV to dispense 3,000 gallons of sub-surface dispersant at a rate of nine gallons per minute. BP and NOAA are evaluating the results of the test procedure to determine its feasability for continued use.

Oil Report Line/Volunteer Line - (866)-448-5816

Rapid response teams are staged to deploy to shorlines affected by oil to evaluate and determine an appropriate clean-up effort to minimize the impact to the environment.

BP has established a volunteer program and set up a toll-free number for people to call. When calling, people should communicate what they are volunteering for what areas they are available to work in. In addition, people can call to learn about the training that is required to work in oil spill clean-up operations.
Claim Line (800)-440-0858
BP has established a claim system and an 800 number for people to call. This system will allow people to begin the process to recover lost income or recoup damage related expenses.

To report oiled or injured wildlife, please call (866)-557-1401.

Incident Facts:

More than 275,580 feet of boom (barrier) has been assigned to contain the spill. An additional 316,470 feet is available.

To date, the oil spill response team has recovered 23,968 barrels (1,006,656 gallons) of an oil-water mix.

68 response vessels are being used including skimmers, tugs, barges and recovery vessels.

142,914 gallons of dispersant have been deployed and an additional 68,300 gallons are available.

Six staging areas are in place and ready to protect sensitive shorelines. These areas include:

Biloxi, Miss., Pensacola, Fla. Venice, La., Pascagoula, Miss., Theodore, Ala., and Port Sulphur, La.

Weather conditions for May 1 - Winds from the southeast at 20 - 25 knots, 6 - 8 foot seas with chance of afternoon showers.

126 people were on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig when the incident occurred. 11 remain unaccounted for; 17 were injured, 3 of them critically. 1 injured person remains in the hospital.

For the latest information visit www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com or follow us on Twitter at http://twitter.com/Oil_Spill_2010 or on Facebook at Deepwater Horizon Response.

For media needing more information regarding the Deepwater Horizon incident, contact the joint information center at (985) 902-5231/5240.

To submit alternative response technology, services or products please email horizonsupport@oegllc.com or call (281) 366-5511.
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
Print Version

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 011652
ARZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-020200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE ARKALTEX REGION
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AR INTO THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
ARKALTEX REGION NEWD ACROSS AR INTO THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE
AND HAIL...ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SPREADING INTO THE
OHIO VALLY OVERNIGHT.

A FEW TORNADIC STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LONG TRACK
AND VERY DAMAGING TORNADOES...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
ARKLATEX REGION AROUND MID AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN SPREAD AND
DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..IMY.. 05/01/2010

$$
Member Since: Augusti 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
The niche of turning and converging winds is located near 12N, 91W.

Satellite winds:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Imagery from 30Apr2351UTC




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:




Dry air is not the issue, here, take another assessment, its the upper ridge building in that will prevent thunderstorms. The air mass is very moist up until you reach the upper ridge, upon which there is an inversion cap due to warm air aloft, also above the cap lies a very dry layer.


That being said, I would be willing to bet we would have widespread thunderstorms if there was no upper blocking ridge. Surface moisture is far deep enough for deep tropical convection, plenty of heating too.

Remember, many times during the sea breeze setup in Florida, moisture depth starts out rather shallow, but low level moisture is what counts most. For warm air mass holds FAR more water vapor then the colder upper levels...

So becaue of this, the only preventing factor is not dry air aloft for air often begins dry a loft in tropical areas if there is no low pressure area or upper trough. But because the surface holds a massive volume of low level moisture in tropical areas. The upper levels become moistened RAPIDLY by growing convection with daytime heating, until the upper levels become saturated. By this point, widespread heavy thunderstorms erupt, causing torrents of rain, lots of lightning, possibly severe in some areas....


Its only because we have an inversion cap, that we won't have a breakout of summer type storms. Without the cap, we would have thunderstorms exploding right now across Florida.







yep,its the sinking air that will limit any sea breeze storms this afternoon.Its been building in from the NE....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Looks, but isn't. There is no defined vort max in the area, and that is evident on satellite imagery by the lack of spin. It's an area of converging winds but to be honest looks worse than the previous systems that tried to spin up this week.

The AOI is definetly not vertically stacked, it just looks decent on satellite. If it continues to strengthen gradually we should have an invest in the next 48-72 hours, imo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:




Dry air is not the issue, here, take another assessment, its the upper ridge building in that will prevent thunderstorms. The air mass is very moist up until you reach the upper ridge, upon which there is an inversion cap due to warm air aloft, also above the cap lies a very dry layer.


That being said, I would be willing to bet we would have widespread thunderstorms if there was no upper blocking ridge. Surface moisture is far deep enough for deep tropical convection, plenty of heating too.

Remember, many times during the sea breeze setup in Florida, moisture depth starts out rather shallow, but low level moisture is what counts most. For warm air mass holds FAR more water vapor then the colder upper levels...

So becaue of this, the only preventing factor is not dry air aloft for air often begins dry a loft in tropical areas if there is no low pressure area or upper trough. But because the surface holds a massive volume of low level moisture in tropical areas. The upper levels become moistened RAPIDLY by growing convection with daytime heating, until the upper levels become saturated. By this point, widespread heavy thunderstorms erupt, causing torrents of rain, lots of lightning, possibly severe in some areas....


Its only because we have an inversion cap, that we won't have a breakout of summer type storms. Without the cap, we would have thunderstorms exploding right now across Florida.




Jed... quite true as dry air is not THE only limiting factor and there are other variables to take into account. Unfortunately, for today's scenario, Mid to Upper levels are not that conductive for deep convection in my opinion and current observations, but I do see isolated pockets of deep convection where they're able to break any inversion caps aloft.

This is why I didn't rule out light to moderate rainfall(.5" to 1.5") as there's enough moisture to for the Sea Breeze to squeeze out of the atmosphere. Current CAPE are ranging from 1500 to 2000 J/kg, but lapse rates are weak. We'll see how things transpire and sure hope we get a nice shot of rain (my grass specially needs it).

In regards any isolate deep convection, I would expect it to primarily bring strong wind gusts (due to the dry air presence at mid to upper levels and torrential rains in the range of 2" to 4") and quite a bit of lightning as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:

16:45 UTC (12:45 AM EST)
Sorry to say this but it looks like a TD already.


Dvorak not showing anything, but I think we will have an invest soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
16:45 UTC (12:45 AM EST)
Sorry to say this but it looks like a TD already.



Looks, but isn't. There is no defined vort max in the area, and that is evident on satellite imagery by the lack of spin. It's an area of converging winds but to be honest looks worse than the previous systems that tried to spin up this week.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting southlouisiana:
I often see clips and stories of people who chase tornados and storms as a hobby up in the midwest I wonder if anyone ever chases hurricanes and tries to catch their landfall in a similar manner. Just a curiousity.


Yes, there is even one on this Blog, I forget his handle.

I am pretty sure that is where the expression "Lights are on, but nobody is Home" comes from.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looking for something to bring me a smile, and there's bordonaro's avatar, waving in a snow flurry.

time to switch over to a summer avatar, Bo!! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Week - Moderate La Nina in store for Jun - July - Aug time frame.

The stronger the La Niña the further to the east the storms develop. That is never good considering the location of the B/A high. I'm going to say:

17-19 Named Storms

8-10 Hurricanes

3-6 Major Hurricanes

2 Cat 5 Hurricanes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
16:45 UTC (12:45 AM EST)
Sorry to say this but it looks like a TD already.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
#823, Beell, I pray and hope the "wellhead" does not blow out. It would be an absolute terrible disaster for the Gulf States!!
Member Since: Augusti 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Week - Moderate La Nina in store for Jun - July - Aug time frame.

Member Since: Juli 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24134
Quoting Jedkins01:



Ha! its 91 here near the west coast of Florida with a dewpoint of 74, heat index over 100, I love it, its so good to feel this in Florida again after a record cold winter!

Na, I like it outside, I don't like it too hot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
78˚F Here in Miami. Winds ESE at 15MPH.


East Texas lakes area simmering this morning as well.

toile, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 13 min 3 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
84.6 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 73%
Dew Point: 75 °F

Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.58 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 93 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 7 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2400 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 202 ft
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Its iz a Gusher..has been for 10 days now.


We punched nuff holes out there since the 50's,..one was bound to bite us back.



Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
78%u02DAF Here in Miami. Winds ESE at 15MPH.



Ha! its 91 here near the west coast of Florida with a dewpoint of 74, heat index over 100, I love it, its so good to feel this in Florida again after a record cold winter!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:

This is a terrible situation will not get better for a LONG time.

Flooding in mid-town Memphis, TN, raw sewage and flood waters a few feet deep. The Federal Pen is being evacuated along with several hundred people are evacuating. There are areas receiving 2" of rain an hour, isolated reports of almost 11" of rain has fallen.
Quoting southlouisiana:
I often see clips and stories of people who chase tornados and storms as a hobby up in the midwest I wonder if anyone ever chases hurricanes and tries to catch their landfall in a similar manner. Just a curiousity.

Mr "Cyclone Oz", who blogs on WU chases the Hurricanes!
Member Since: Augusti 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This is the newest one I found, not new though.



Omen for Hurricane Season? heh.
Member Since: Juli 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24134
823. beell
Leaked report: Government fears Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher
By Ben Raines
April 30, 2010, 2:18PM
Link
Mobile Press-Register

A confidential government report on the unfolding spill disaster makes clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could be on the verge of becoming an unchecked gusher shooting millions of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf. A confidential government report on the unfolding spill disaster in the Gulf makes clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could become an unchecked gusher shooting millions of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf.

"The following is not public," reads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Emergency Response document dated April 28. "Two additional release points were found today in the tangled riser. If the riser pipe deteriorates further, the flow could become unchecked resulting in a release volume an order of magnitude higher than previously thought."

Asked Friday to comment on the document, NOAA spokesman Scott Smullen said that the additional leaks described were reported to the public late Wednesday night. Regarding the possibility of the spill becoming an order of magnitude larger, Smullen said, "I'm letting the document you have speak for itself."

In scientific circles, an order of magnitude means something is 10 times larger. In this case, an order of magnitude higher would mean the volume of oil coming from the well could be 10 times higher than the 5,000 barrels a day coming out now. That would mean 50,000 barrels a day, or 2.1 million gallons a day. It appears the new leaks mentioned in the Wednesday release are the leaks reported to the public late Wednesday night.

"There is no official change in the volume released but the USCG is no longer stating that the release rate is 1,000 barrels a day," continues the document, referred to as report No. 12. "Instead they are saying that they are preparing for a worst-case release and bringing all assets to bear."

The emergency document also states that the spill has grown in size so quickly that only 1 to 2 percent of it has been sprayed with dispersants.

The Press-Register obtained the emergency report from a government official. The White House, NOAA, the Coast Guard and BP Plc did not immediately return calls for comment made early this morning.

The worst-case scenario for the broken and leaking well pouring oil into the Gulf of Mexico would be the loss of the wellhead and kinked piping currently restricting the flow to 5,000 barrels -- or 210,000 gallons -- per day.

If the wellhead is lost, oil could leave the well at a much greater rate.

"Typically, a very good well in the Gulf can produce 30,000 barrels a day, but that's under control. I have no idea what an uncontrolled release could be," said Stephen Sears, chairman of the petroleum engineering department at Louisiana State University.

On Thursday, federal officials said they were preparing for the worst-case scenario but didn't elaborate.

Kinks in the piping created as the rig sank to the seafloor may be all that is preventing the Deepwater Horizon well from releasing its maximum flow. BP is now drilling a relief well as the ultimate fix. The company said Thursday that process would take up to 3 months.

"I'm not sure what's happening down there right now. I have heard there is a kink in what's called the riser. The riser is a long pipe that connects the wellhead to the rig. I really don't know if that kink is a big restriction. Is that really a big restriction? There could be another restriction further down," said LSU's Sears.

"An analogy would be if you have a kink in a garden hose. You suspect that kink is restricting the flow, but there could be another restriction or kink somewhere else closer to the faucet.

BP Plc executive Doug Suttles said Thursday the company was worried about "erosion" of the pipe at the wellhead.

Sand is an integral part of the formations that hold oil under the Gulf. That sand, carried in the oil as it shoots through the piping, is blamed for the ongoing erosion described by BP.

"The pipe could disintegrate. You've got sand getting into the pipe, it's eroding the pipe all the time, like a sandblaster," said Ron Gouget, a former oil spill response coordinator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The oil originated from a leaking pipeline after last week's explosion and collapse of the Deepwater Horizon."When the oil is removed normally, it comes out at a controlled rate. You can still have abrasive particles in that. Well, now, at this well, its coming out at fairly high velocity," Gouget continued. "Any erosive grains are abrading the inside of the pipe and all the steel that comes in contact with the liquid. It's essentially sanding away the pipe."

Gouget said the loss of a wellhead is totally unprecedented.

"How bad it could get from that, you will have a tremendous volume of oil that is going to be offgassing on the coast. Depending on how much wind is there, and how those gases build up, that's a significant health concern," he said.

The formation that was being drilled by Deepwater Horizon when it exploded and sank last week is reported to have tens of millions of barrels of oil. A barrel contains 42 gallons.

Smullen described the NOAA document as a regular daily briefing. "Your report makes it sound pretty dire. It's a scenario," he said, "It's a regular daily briefing sheet that considered different scenarios much like any first responder would."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is a dangerous situation across the memphis area and surrounding locations!

Rainfall rates are up to 3 and 4 inches per hour! This is Tropical Cyclone type rainfall intensity, this is the type of rain we get down here often in Florida and in tropics, the mid latitude areas are not meant to handle these type of rainfall rates!

People could die if they do not take take the flooding seriously, if you live in these areas, listen to flood safety rules!



Flooding kills more then tornados or any other natural disaster. This needs to be taken seriously!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
88 degrees outside.. wow.
78˚F Here in Miami. Winds ESE at 15MPH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
the SPC has other high risk

This is a terrible situation for Western TN and it will not get better for a LONG time.

Good news, the severe weather appears to be just east of Memphis, TN at the moment.

Flooding in mid-town Memphis, TN, raw sewage and flood waters a few feet deep. The Federal Pen is being evacuated along with several hundred people are evacuating. There are areas receiving 2" of rain an hour, isolated reports of almost 11" of rain has fallen.
Member Since: Augusti 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
88 degrees outside.. wow.
Member Since: Juli 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24134
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Morning Homeless!

It is so yucky outside.. I hope the bad weather bypasses us though... Gotta catch me some of the River Festival tonight.


Morning SRT. Yeah it's like soup out there. Gotta love the mornings when water is running off everything and it hasn't rained in months. Lol. Hoping the bad weather passes us by too. So far it hasn't gotten as bad as they feared. Especially the winds. We had a fog advisory early this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting indianrivguy:


That's pretty damned awesome... thanks for sharing that..


no prob.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the SPC has other high risk
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cajunkid:
Eye witness account of rig explosion

Link


That's pretty damned awesome... thanks for sharing that..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning Homeless!

It is so yucky outside.. I hope the bad weather bypasses us though... Gotta catch me some of the River Festival tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NEXRAD Radar
Memphis, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
Quoting WxLogic:
There's a chance of a Sea Breeze front collision across the FL Peninsula. Mid levels have moisten up just a bit from yesterday, but we definitely have abundant moisture at low levels so will not be surprised to see a couple low top showers in the light to moderate range later this afternoon into early evening hours.

Of course if some dry air is able to filter down from mid-levels once mixing starts to occur after 10AM today then we could be then seeing no rain at all.




Dry air is not the issue, here, take another assessment, its the upper ridge building in that will prevent thunderstorms. The air mass is very moist up until you reach the upper ridge, upon which there is an inversion cap due to warm air aloft, also above the cap lies a very dry layer.


That being said, I would be willing to bet we would have widespread thunderstorms if there was no upper blocking ridge. Surface moisture is far deep enough for deep tropical convection, plenty of heating too.

Remember, many times during the sea breeze setup in Florida, moisture depth starts out rather shallow, but low level moisture is what counts most. For warm air mass holds FAR more water vapor then the colder upper levels...

So becaue of this, the only preventing factor is not dry air aloft for air often begins dry a loft in tropical areas if there is no low pressure area or upper trough. But because the surface holds a massive volume of low level moisture in tropical areas. The upper levels become moistened RAPIDLY by growing convection with daytime heating, until the upper levels become saturated. By this point, widespread heavy thunderstorms erupt, causing torrents of rain, lots of lightning, possibly severe in some areas....


Its only because we have an inversion cap, that we won't have a breakout of summer type storms. Without the cap, we would have thunderstorms exploding right now across Florida.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
morning, I posted the complete article, but here is the link:

Link


ahh, I see... thanks, I appreciate it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LIVE FEED from WREG-TV in Memphis, TN. They have several acive Tornado Warnings, and they have had reports of over 11" of rain, a very, very bad situation!!
Link
Member Since: Augusti 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting indianrivguy:


Mornin' Mad Stork man.. do you have a link for that, I would like to read more.
morning, I posted the complete article, but here is the link:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
" WASHINGTON — The oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico has grown tremendously in just a day or so.

Satellite images analyzed by the University of Miami show the spill has expanded from the size of Rhode Island to something closer to the size of Puerto Rico, close to tripling.

Hans Graber, executive director of the university's Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, said Saturday that the spill is moving faster and expanding much quicker than estimated.

Graber says the size of the slick was about 1,150 square miles on Thursday. By the end of Friday, he says it had tripled to about 3,850 square miles.

Graber says estimates of only 1,000 barrels spilling a day seem to be more public relations than anything accurate."

Wow, that is shocking.


Mornin' Mad Stork man.. do you have a link for that, I would like to read more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
15:45UTC (11:45 AM EDT)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICS...
A LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE LIES ALONG THE E EDGE OF THE
ITCZ. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ HERE FROM 14N92W
TO 11N88W TO 06N87W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THIS TROUGH IS
DIFFLUENT AS IT LIES ON THE SE SIDE OF A STRENGTHENING
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTION NEAR
THE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. THE CENTER OF
THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE E WHILE THE RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
SUN AND LIFTING N THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG 19N BUT
EXPANDING TO 10N115W MON. THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD
ALLOW CONVECTION TO SHIFT FROM THIS TROUGH TO THE SW TOWARD THE
ITCZ OVER CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MON...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONFLUENT OVER SE WATERS
BETWEEN THIS ANTICYCLONE AND ONE EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF OVER
NORTHERN PERU AND DRIFT W THROUGH SUN. CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO
RETURN NEAR PANAMA ON MON AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
MEANWHILE...DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
ITCZ AROUND 120W HAS INDUCED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AXIS AND A TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM
09N131W TO 02N133W.

FINALLY...CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 115W ON SUN MORNING AND REACH 10N BY
MON MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is the newest one I found, not new though.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


I will try to post the latest NASA satellite on the oil spill.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all. Keeper, Astro, and anyone in harms way today stay safe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cajunkid:
Eye witness account of rig explosion

Link


Great info and thats a Blowout scenerio for sure...

What folks in the media fail to realize..its da pressures involved..

Now we have a Oil Volcano,5000 ft under the GOM,with the Hole smashed ,,to 18k below the seabed.

Iz Bad,bad..bad..

Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
BP also sought ideas from some of its rivals and was using at least one of them Friday — applying chemicals underwater to break up the oil before it reaches the surface. That had never before been attempted at such depths.
Member Since: Augusti 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1626
" WASHINGTON — The oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico has grown tremendously in just a day or so.

Satellite images analyzed by the University of Miami show the spill has expanded from the size of Rhode Island to something closer to the size of Puerto Rico, close to tripling.

Hans Graber, executive director of the university's Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, said Saturday that the spill is moving faster and expanding much quicker than estimated.

Graber says the size of the slick was about 1,150 square miles on Thursday. By the end of Friday, he says it had tripled to about 3,850 square miles.

Graber says estimates of only 1,000 barrels spilling a day seem to be more public relations than anything accurate."

Wow, that is shocking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 848 - 798

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.