Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Second deadliest tornado of 2010 kills 5 in Ohio; oil spill update

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:00 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010

The second deadliest tornado of 2010 hit Millbury, Ohio, about 10 miles southeast of Toledo, on Saturday night, killing five. The deaths brought this year's tornado death toll to 23, which is, fortunately, well below the approximately 70 deaths we expect to see by mid-June, based on averages from the past three tornado seasons. The deadliest tornado of 2010 was the EF-4 Yazoo City, Mississippi tornado in April, which killed ten. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornado reports on Saturday, plus 104 reports of damaging winds and 16 of large hail. The tornadoes hit Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Ohio's killer tornado was preliminarily rated a high-end EF-3 with 165 mph winds, but has now been upgraded to an EF-4 with 175 mph winds. An EF-3 tornado also hit Indiana near Grissom Air Force Base on Saturday, and two EF-3 tornadoes were reported in Illinois, one near St. Anne, and one in Livingston County. Here in Michigan, I found myself making some very late night calls at 12:30 am on Sunday to warn relatives about the Doppler radar signatures of rotating supercells bearing down on them. Hardest hit was the town of Dundee, south of Ann Arbor. An EF-2 tornado swept through the town, damaging Michigan's most visited tourist attraction, Cabela's sporting goods store on US-23. An EF-1 tornado also damaged a building at the Fermi II Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Erie, forcing an automatic shutdown of the nuclear reactor.

Figure 1. Severe weather reports for Saturday, June 5, 2010. Image credit: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light winds of 5 - 10 knots today will turn to southeasterly Tuesday through Wednesday, then southerly on Thursday through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that the ocean currents that have carried oil eastward along the Florida Panhandle coast will weaken this week, making it unlikely that oil will penetrate farther eastwards than Panama City, Florida. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a return to a southeastery wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.

Figure 2. The oil spill on June 5, 2010 at 11:49pm EDT, as seen by Sythetic Aperature Radar (SAR) imagery from the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters
I'll have a new post on Tuesday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Also on Tuesday, I'll be continuing our experiment with my live Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Tomorrow's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

Jeff Masters

Massive Thunderhead! (utjazzfan)

Mike shot only the top quarter of this storm cell... Quite a sight!

()

June 5th Tornado (MsWickedWitch)

Near Peoria IL

Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage (weatherwatcher24)

More damage, but other areas were much worse.

Categories: Tornado

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651. CaribBoy 11:15 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Since the 12z run, GFS has greatly diminished the impact of our CATL wave over the Leeward islands. I now think we won't get VERY ACTIVE WEATHER at all (maybe a quick shower and I'm generous).. unlike the Windwards where more activity will likely occur. Member Since: Oktober 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2982

652. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 11:15 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting pottery: For you, my friend, it's gets a whole lot Better. For many years. LIVE them. and actually "it gets worse" was a joke. It does not! Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

653. atmoaggie 11:16 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: I'm 13. LOL... Good. This link is PG-13, for language...but relevant "news" from the Onion: http://www.theonion.com/articles/massive-flow-of-bull[snip]-continues-to-gush-from-bp,17564/ Member Since: Augusti 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

654. MiamiHurricanes09 11:16 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Notice the difference of the SSTs along the equatorial Pacific. June 7, 2005 June 7, 2010 Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

655. pottery 11:16 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
I need to go and speak to the stove! I set the timer, pressed 'start', about 2 hours ago. It has not cooked anything at all. Am I supposed to put something in the oven, or what? This Bachelor stuff sux.... BBL Member Since: Oktober 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20866

656. MiamiHurricanes09 11:17 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: Good. This link is PG-13, for language...but relevant "news" from the Onion: http://www.theonion.com/articles/massive-flow-of-bull[snip]-continues-to-gush-from-bp,17564/ LMAO, It's a very relevant title I have to say. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

657. pottery 11:18 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: Now, Now Keeper, have some respect for the Seniors around here. LOL out Member Since: Oktober 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20866

658. MiamiHurricanes09 11:19 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting StormW: LOL! Oh by the way, very nice synopsis you posted this afternoon. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

659. SouthALWX 11:19 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
STJ looks to be moving further north soon ... Could get active in a week or two. Member Since: Augusti 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497

660. MiamiHurricanes09 11:19 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting pottery: Now, Now Keeper, have some respect for the Seniors around here. LOL out LOL! Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

661. SouthALWX 11:20 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Notice the difference of the SSTs along the equatorial Pacific. June 7, 2005 June 7, 2010 slightly stronger la nina signal but thats as close as it gets pattern-wise Member Since: Augusti 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497

662. aspectre 11:21 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
"If CycloneOzuses 5-gallon cans to carry extra gas on his roof, but is limited to 440 pounds of gas he can carry, how many gas cans does CycloneOz need to buy to have as much gas as possible, yet stay under the Federal Law quoted above?" Buying 4/7ths of a container might present some problems. But the hard part is carrying that 4/7ths without having the 20pounds inside slosh all over your car. Member Since: Augusti 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4855

663. spathy 11:22 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
If it gets worse consider it a learning experience. And then it will get much better :0) This apply s to all aspects of life including surviving a storm. Member Since: Juni 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10529

664. SouthALWX 11:22 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting pottery: I need to go and speak to the stove! I set the timer, pressed 'start', about 2 hours ago. It has not cooked anything at all. Am I supposed to put something in the oven, or what? This Bachelor stuff sux.... BBL you gotta smack it around a bit and make sure it knows to make sandwiches ... oh wait that's women I really dont know what this "stove" is is you speak of ... 0.o Member Since: Augusti 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497

665. JRRP 11:22 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
big wave 9n 43w Member Since: Augusti 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4358

666. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 11:23 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting pottery: Now, Now Keeper, have some respect for the Seniors around here. LOL out Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

667. MiamiHurricanes09 11:24 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
This wave is probably the furthest north I've seen so far this season. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

668. MiamiHurricanes09 11:25 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: LOL. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

669. CaribBoy 11:26 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
We could have a yellow circle for the CATL wave by tomorrow... just my opinion :) Member Since: Oktober 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2982

670. extreme236 11:27 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
The wave in the Central Atlantic is forecasted to gain some latitude and perhaps be a strong tropical wave as it moves towards PR. Member Since: Augusti 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

672. spathy 11:28 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
With the clean blog. I am feeling less the Elder. But I will defer to Pottery. Pottery I usually set the timer to tell me when to put the food in the oven. Then I set the timer to tell me when to take food out. If I only had a timer to tell me to set the timer I would be set! EDIT I think Our tropical timer is about to BUZZ! Member Since: Juni 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10529

673. CaribBoy 11:28 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: This wave is probably the furthest north I've seen so far this season. You are right. Member Since: Oktober 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2982

674. MiamiHurricanes09 11:30 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: "WOW! Are we sure this is only June?" Enough of the JFV stuff. Quoting extreme236: The wave in the Central Atlantic is forecasted to gain some latitude and perhaps be a strong tropical wave as it moves towards PR. Yes I heard about that, should be interesting to watch none the less. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

675. JRRP 11:30 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting extreme236: The wave in the Central Atlantic is forecasted to gain some latitude and perhaps be a strong tropical wave as it moves towards PR. that is true Member Since: Augusti 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4358

676. CaribBoy 11:31 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting extreme236: The wave in the Central Atlantic is forecasted to gain some latitude and perhaps be a strong tropical wave as it moves towards PR. You think it will get as far north as PR? Based on the latest models i see it remaining a little south of the NE carib islands. Time will tell. Member Since: Oktober 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2982

677. IKE 11:31 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
I see nothing in the Atlantic on the 18Z GFS run. 18Z NOGAPS Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

678. extreme236 11:31 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting CaribBoy: You think it will get as far north as PR? Based on the latest models i see it remaining a little south of the NE carib islands. Time will tell. It might. It wouldn't effect PR for another few days so a lot could still change. Member Since: Augusti 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

679. Cavin Rawlins 11:32 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Expect another wave to emerge later this weekend. This one will take first place as the strongest wave of the season with a vigorous mid-low level circulation along the axis near 10N. Convection is not expected to sustain along this wave as the other two over the EATL but like the wave near 40W, it will gather steam further west. Notice a pattern in these three waves, each progressively stronger than the next. Member Since: Juli 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

680. JLPR2 11:32 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting extreme236: The wave in the Central Atlantic is forecasted to gain some latitude and perhaps be a strong tropical wave as it moves towards PR. Well that would be unexpected, strong tropical waves dont usually come around here till July :\ Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7534

681. MrsOsa 11:32 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting SouthALWX: you gotta smack it around a bit and make sure it knows to make sandwiches ... oh wait that's women I really dont know what this "stove" is is you speak of ... 0.o At least it wasn't someone from MS who said that. We need all the help we can get sometimes lol Member Since: Maj 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 84

682. CaribBoy 11:34 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting extreme236: It might. It wouldn't effect PR for another few days so a lot could still change. True, things are always changing. Weather can be surprising sometimes Member Since: Oktober 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2982

683. 850Realtor 11:34 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting MrsOsa: At least it wasn't someone from MS who said that. We need all the help we can get sometimes lol MrsOsa, your avatar...that is the cutest dog...what breed? Member Since: September 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 283

684. GeoffreyWPB 11:35 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
If we don't see Alex in the next two weeks...I think we will have to wait till July. Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9248

685. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 11:35 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
667. MiamiHurricanes09 11:24 PM GMT on June 07, 2010 This wave is probably the furthest north I've seen so far this season. actually wave 18 is at the perfect height for possible further future dev Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

686. CaribBoy 11:36 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting Weather456: Expect another wave to emerge later this weekend. This one will take first place as the strongest wave of the season with a vigorous mid-low level circulation along the axis near 10N. Convection is not expected to sustain along this wave as the other two over the EATL but like the wave near 40W, it will gather steam further west. Notice a pattern in these three waves, each progressively stronger than the next. Imagine if this trend continues till... the heart of the season. Member Since: Oktober 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2982

687. MiamiHurricanes09 11:36 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting IKE: I see nothing in the Atlantic on the 18Z GFS run. 18Z NOGAPS Yeah, both the NOGAPS and GFS show development in the EPAC. Quoting Weather456: Expect another wave to emerge later this weekend. This one will take first place as the strongest wave of the season with a vigorous mid-low level circulation along the axis near 10N. Convection is not expected to sustain along this wave as the other two over the EATL but like the wave near 40W, it will gather steam further west. Notice a pattern in these three waves, each progressively stronger than the next. It's not good to see them getting stronger, they should be beasts by late June if they keep getting stronger. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

688. Grothar 11:37 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
They are looking stronger. Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19682

689. MrsOsa 11:37 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting 850Realtor: MrsOsa, your avatar...that is the cutest dog...what breed? My Great Dane girl as a puppy. She is now 100lbs (skinny) and 36" tall at her shoulders. They're only that small for a couple weeks! Member Since: Maj 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 84

690. IKE 11:37 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Tropics Quiet in the Atlantic Basin Jun 7, 2010 5:06 PM As of Monday evening, EDT, a series of tropical waves were found over the open North Atlantic Ocean. None of these waves are forecast to show any significant development for at least the next 48 hours due to moderate wind shear. The rest of the Atlantic remains very quiet. By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Justin Povick and Andy Mussoline Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

691. MiamiHurricanes09 11:38 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: 667. MiamiHurricanes09 11:24 PM GMT on June 07, 2010 This wave is probably the furthest north I've seen so far this season. actually wave 18 is at the perfect height for possible further future dev Wave 18? Where is that? Do you mean 18˚N? Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

692. spathy 11:38 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Question Could the active wave pattern off Africa act to cool the water and delay waves from sustained convergence till the norm development season? Member Since: Juni 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10529

693. CaribBoy 11:39 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
I'm off, see you later guys Member Since: Oktober 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2982

694. 850Realtor 11:39 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting MrsOsa: My Great Dane girl as a puppy. She is now 100lbs (skinny) and 36" tall at her shoulders. They're only that small for a couple weeks! I thought it was a Great Dane, but wasn't sure. She is beautiful! Member Since: September 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 283

695. MiamiHurricanes09 11:39 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting Grothar: They are looking stronger. Ok, ok Grothar you beat me on the pics now, that has to be one of the nicest satellite color schemes I've seen in a long time. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

696. Torgen 11:40 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting MrsOsa: At least it wasn't someone from MS who said that. We need all the help we can get sometimes lol I was born in Mississippi. Mississippi is a great place to be from. The further away from, the better! :D Member Since: Juni 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 321

697. MiamiHurricanes09 11:40 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting Grothar: They are looking stronger. By the way, that wave over by eastern Africa looks vigorous. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

698. Grothar 11:41 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Ok, ok Grothar you beat me on the pics now, that has to be one of the nicest satellite color schemes I've seen in a long time. I use Paintbrush. Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19682

699. HurricaneSwirl 11:41 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Wave 18? Where is that? Do you mean 18˚N? No Keeper is keeping track of all the waves that roll off of Africa, and this is the 18th one haha Member Since: Juli 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

701. MrsOsa 11:42 PM GMT on Juni 07, 2010
Thank you much! I would recommend them to just about anyone. They're wonderful dogs even for apartment dwellers. Member Since: Maj 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 84

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