Category 2 Alex Makes Landfall on the Mexican Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:27 AM GMT on Juli 01, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

1AM CDT Update
Alex is weakening as it moves inland As of the 1AM advisory, Alex's winds have slowed to 85 mph. Alex is at 24.1N, 98.2W which is 35 miles northwest of La Pesca, MX and 135 miles south-southwest of Brownsville, TX. Alex is moving west-southwest at 10 mph. Alex may be slowing down, but it's still producing a lot of rain. Radar-derived rainfall estimates shows that Alex is covering widespread areas with 0.5-0.8 inches of rain in the last hour. Over the past 24 hours, the Rio Grande at Brownsville has risen 10 feet, but it's still about 14 feet away from the flood stage of 27 feet.

9PM CDT
The center of Alex's eye has made landfall according to NHC. They state that 9PM CDT, Alex's center crossed the shoreline in the municipality of Soto La Marina, MX, which is 110 miles south of Brownsville. At the time of landfall, Alex had wind speeds of 105 mph, making it a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale

With wind speeds near 100 mph, Alex is nearing landfall on the Mexican coast. As of 8PM CDT, Alex is at 24.3N, 97.5W, 40 miles northeast of La Pesca, MX and 110 miles south of Brownsville. It is moving west at 10 mph, and the center of the eye should arrive onshore around 9PM CDT. Alex has a very large circulation, hurricane force winds extend 70 miles away from the the center, and tropical storm force winds are 205 miles away. A MADIS station located in South Padre Island, TX has reported wind gusts of 60 mph and sustained winds of 35-40 mph. We have a plot of that station's data here, and it looks like the wind speed sensor failed around 733PM CDT. Unfortunately, that's a common fate for weather stations near a landfalling storm.

One of the last eye penetrations of Alex occured at 640PM CDT, and they found an partially complete eye with a 12 mile radius. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb, a 2 mb drop since the 6PM update, and the maximum wind estimate was 94 mph using the microwave radiometer.


Fig. 1Base reflectivity from KBRO showing Alex's eye at 721PM CDT.

Threat from winds
Hurricane force winds are likely taking place along the northeast Mexican coast right now. 25 mph winds with stronger gusts are being reported in the Brownsville area. A tornado watch is currently in place for the south Texas coast. SPC shows there have been 5 tornado reports so far.

Threat from rain
Radar-derived rainfall estimates suggest that up to 9 inches of rain have fallen in some locations near Brownsville, TX. 5+ inches of rain has fallen over a widespread area in the Rio Grande valley. The NWS office in Brownsville is forecasting a total of 6-12 inches rain across the Valley, with 12-15 inch totals possible in isolated locations. Flooding similar to that caused by Dolly in 2008 is expected across south Texas.

Threat from coastal flooding
The NWS is predicting a 3-4 foot storm surge for the coast from Brownsville to Port Isabel, TX. They think the coastal flooding will be limited and not cause significant damage to property along the coast.

Next update
I'll try to edit this blog with updates as more information comes in tonight. Jeff should have a full posting tomorrow morning, and I'll likely have a post describing the flooding at my blog Thursday night.

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Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


So it still has a chance to stall...turn east...then northeast...and hit Florida?


wow
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138. IKE
I bet no one was on that barrier island....I bet OZ wished he were there.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
8:05 TWD

Next player?

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...MOVING WESTWARD
10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES OF
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW
LEVEL WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH MODEL POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANALYSIS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 11N
BETWEEN 26W AND 34W.
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135. IKE
July tracks....on average....

Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Drakoen:


That has been acheieved


Not according to radar....1/3 of eye at most. Don't tell me we have to disagree on this too lol.

Edit: new frame at 02:10 is getting close.

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Boo-yah

Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Quoting AussieStorm:

What????


Look at the chat window...
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Quoting Levi32:


Half the eye has to cross the coast.


Quoting NOAA:
"Alex Makes Landfall"
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/
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Quoting IKE:
I'll say we get the B storm by July 15th....C storm by July 20th.

If this season is heading for 23, we're at 1...that leaves 22. There are 21+ weeks left in the season.

It has to ramp up...quickly...within 2-3 weeks to start achieving that.


I doubt we'll hit 23.

Probably 18-19 more.

We could have a very active August/September so July pretty much needs 3-5 storms.
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128. bgsyp
well i guess your prediction of alex moving up towards Louisiana,texas area was off,yet again..
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Oh... and quite a storm there. Has been very interesting to track.

And, kudos to the NHC on this one. One of the best performances I've ever seen.
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Alex peaks at
105MPH with 947MB PRESSURE?
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Alex made landfall as a 105mph hurricane with a pressure of 947mb.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Levi32:


Half the eye has to cross the coast.


That has been acheieved
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Quoting Levi32:


Half the eye has to cross the coast.


So it still has a chance to stall...turn east...then northeast...and hit Florida?
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Quoting Josihua2:
Omg hey everyone. conditions here in my parents beach house in La Pesca, mexico are very windy and the rain is like actually falling sideways! i see and hear the waves crashing against my house.we probably should of listened to call of evacuation but our house have been through this many times before.

how do you have power?
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Quoting Seastep:
No freakin' way! JFV!



What????
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Quoting atmosweather:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX MADE LANDFALL AROUND 9 PM CDT...0200 UTC
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF SOTO LA MARINA...
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.


Moderate Cat 2
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Landfall:

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Quoting 1900hurricane:
I think we can call it landfall now.



Half the eye has to cross the coast.
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116. JLPR2
Quoting AussieStorm:

someone did post... NEW BLOG on the previous blog


yeah
Quoting CapeObserver:
New blog.

LOL! Thats how I found out :3
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I think we can call it landfall now.

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000
WTNT61 KNHC 010158
TCUAT1
HURRICANE ALEX TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
900 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
...ALEX MAKES LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX MADE LANDFALL AROUND 9 PM CDT...0200 UTC
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF SOTO LA MARINA...
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 97.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This wave in the center of the image below is going to be a problem, imo. Right now there is an anticyclone aloft and vorticity ain't that bad either.


I agree... However it will not be much of a problem if it cant get above 7 or 8 N
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No freakin' way! JFV!


Quoting AussieStorm:
Here's a link to a live stream that at South Padre Island, TX.
Link
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Quoting JLPR2:


The one inland is huge compared to the one in the CATL
XD


The one in the CATL looks a lot smaller than past 93L did, looks like Bonnie(if it does develop) will be the exact opposite of Alex, tiny and compact like charley in 04.
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Quoting aspectre:
aspectre "Alex is just showboating now. Still no word from the NHC about a landfall."

45 KoritheMan "[...]ADVISORY NUMBER 21B[...]NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
[...]800 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010[...]ALEX ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO"

Read that, and still no official word on landfall or exact location. The location with Advisory21B is still ~20miles from shore in the direction H.Alex had been heading.


I gotcha.

Yeah, they really need to give some sort of update.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
109. IKE
I'll say we get the B storm by July 15th....C storm by July 20th.

If this season is heading for 23, we're at 1...that leaves 22. There are 21+ weeks left in the season.

It has to ramp up...quickly...within 2-3 weeks to start achieving that.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting atmoaggie:
You'd think one of these 90 posts could have involved a posting like

new blog

in the previous one...I see how it is, thanks guys.

someone did post... NEW BLOG on the previous blog
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX MADE LANDFALL AROUND 9 PM CDT...0200 UTC
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF SOTO LA MARINA...
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
You'd think one of these 90 posts could have involved a posting like

new blog

in the previous one...I see how it is, thanks guys.

3008. CapeObserver 8:31 PM CDT on June 30, 2010
New blog.


:P
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The Hurricane hunters are heading home.
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aspectre "Alex is just showboating now. Still no word from the NHC about a landfall."

45 KoritheMan "[...]ADVISORY NUMBER 21B[...]NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
[...]800 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010[...]ALEX ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO"

Read that, and still no official word on landfall or exact location. The location with Advisory21B is still ~20miles from shore in the direction H.Alex had been heading.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
You'd think one of these 90 posts could have involved a posting like

new blog

in the previous one...I see how it is, thanks guys.
Sorry. I went to do some stuff and when I got back I saw a new blog up so I figured everybody knew.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Katrina:



Alex:



Alex would have easily had the windfield of Katrina had it been in the same position of the Gulf as Katrina. Overall, Alex's circulation looks larger, but the extent of Katrina's intense convection is larger.
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Omg hey everyone. conditions here in my parents beach house in La Pesca, mexico are very windy and the rain is like actually falling sideways! i see and hear the waves crashing against my house.we probably should of listened to call of evacuation but our house have been through this many times before.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
100. JLPR2
Quoting AussieStorm:

you mean 95L.


No I mean 92L II as in 92L the annoying to death invest that tried but never could XD
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Caribbean is fairly clear, which will allow for further warming after Alex's precursor system depleted some of the surface warmth across much of that area.
Forecasted steering would push it towards the greater Antilles and then the Bahamas. For a better look at things take a look at the NOGAPS.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
You'd think one of these 90 posts could have involved a posting like

new blog

in the previous one...I see how it is, thanks guys.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


The one inland is huge compared to the one in the CATL
XD
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this hurricane was only 2 mb away from the strongest pressurewise hurricane in June in the Atlantic
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Looks like an ICTZ wave, just like the front half of pre-Alex.
It's not an ITCZ disturbance it is an AEW.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Actually further east. The wave to watch is located at about 7˚N 33˚W.



Caribbean is fairly clear, which will allow for further warming after Alex's precursor system depleted some of the surface warmth across much of that area.
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Quoting JLPR2:


I hope we don't get 92L II :\

you mean 95L. Alex was 93L, 94L is on it's way toward Bermuda.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


NHC may mark that as an invest soon, maybe mark it as yellow on the 2am normal advisory,(25%, will expect percentages to go up from there)It does look very organized, it would be 95L and if its named it will be bonnie.
You're getting a tad bit ahead of yourself there. Although it has an anticyclone aloft and some decent 850mb vorticity, it still needs to develop an area of low pressure apart from the ITCZ and develop a more organized structure. This area still has lots to do to be shaded, much less be named Bonnie.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Thanks for the update! Winds starting to pick up even here in NE FL!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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