Category 2 Alex Makes Landfall on the Mexican Coast
Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.
1AM CDT Update
Alex is weakening as it moves inland As of the 1AM advisory, Alex's winds have slowed to 85 mph. Alex is at 24.1N, 98.2W which is 35 miles northwest of La Pesca, MX and 135 miles south-southwest of Brownsville, TX. Alex is moving west-southwest at 10 mph. Alex may be slowing down, but it's still producing a lot of rain. Radar-derived rainfall estimates shows that Alex is covering widespread areas with 0.5-0.8 inches of rain in the last hour. Over the past 24 hours, the Rio Grande at Brownsville has risen 10 feet, but it's still about 14 feet away from the flood stage of 27 feet.
9PM CDT
The center of Alex's eye has made landfall according to NHC. They state that 9PM CDT, Alex's center crossed the shoreline in the municipality of Soto La Marina, MX, which is 110 miles south of Brownsville. At the time of landfall, Alex had wind speeds of 105 mph, making it a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale
With wind speeds near 100 mph, Alex is nearing landfall on the Mexican coast. As of 8PM CDT, Alex is at 24.3N, 97.5W, 40 miles northeast of La Pesca, MX and 110 miles south of Brownsville. It is moving west at 10 mph, and the center of the eye should arrive onshore around 9PM CDT. Alex has a very large circulation, hurricane force winds extend 70 miles away from the the center, and tropical storm force winds are 205 miles away. A MADIS station located in South Padre Island, TX has reported wind gusts of 60 mph and sustained winds of 35-40 mph. We have a plot of that station's data here, and it looks like the wind speed sensor failed around 733PM CDT. Unfortunately, that's a common fate for weather stations near a landfalling storm.
One of the last eye penetrations of Alex occured at 640PM CDT, and they found an partially complete eye with a 12 mile radius. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb, a 2 mb drop since the 6PM update, and the maximum wind estimate was 94 mph using the microwave radiometer.
Fig. 1Base reflectivity from KBRO showing Alex's eye at 721PM CDT.
Threat from winds
Hurricane force winds are likely taking place along the northeast Mexican coast right now. 25 mph winds with stronger gusts are being reported in the Brownsville area. A tornado watch is currently in place for the south Texas coast. SPC shows there have been 5 tornado reports so far.
Threat from rain
Radar-derived rainfall estimates suggest that up to 9 inches of rain have fallen in some locations near Brownsville, TX. 5+ inches of rain has fallen over a widespread area in the Rio Grande valley. The NWS office in Brownsville is forecasting a total of 6-12 inches rain across the Valley, with 12-15 inch totals possible in isolated locations. Flooding similar to that caused by Dolly in 2008 is expected across south Texas.
Threat from coastal flooding
The NWS is predicting a 3-4 foot storm surge for the coast from Brownsville to Port Isabel, TX. They think the coastal flooding will be limited and not cause significant damage to property along the coast.
Next update
I'll try to edit this blog with updates as more information comes in tonight. Jeff should have a full posting tomorrow morning, and I'll likely have a post describing the flooding at my blog Thursday night.
Reader Comments
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NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 1 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALEX...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 55 MILES
WEST OF CIUDAD VICTORIA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Now on to July; classic regions for possible development are again the Western Caribbean, Gulf and off of the SE US Coast, but, with the tropics a few weeks ahead of schedule per se in terms of conditions, and Alex did not have any cooling effects out in the MDR, we could conceivably have an early Cape Verde system develop into a TD or Hurricane upon approaching the Cape Verde islands, or, an Alex repeat with a strong wave plowing through the Caribbean and developing, like Alex, in the Wester Caribbean again.
We basically have to keep a close eye on the models and the "entire" MDR for developing waves or viable frontal remnants closer to Conus this month before the real "clusters" of storms begin in earnest in August and September; these early season (June-July) and late season (October-November) storms tend to be lone wolves with the notable recent exception of the back-end of the 2005 season.
I scrolled down to the marine discussion and low and behold they said....
"WENT WITH LOCAL SWAN FOR SEAS IN SHORT-TERM AS WW3 OVERDONE EARLY
DUE TO SPURIOUS GFS.
-- End Changed Discussion --"
LOL! That word again!
On a big jet plane?
"Goin' to California with an achin' in my heart
Someone told me there's a girl out there
With love in her eyes and flowers in her hair"......
wave at 35W could developed?
I saw that on the ECMWF. I think the B storm happens in the next 15 days...by July 15th, so maybe those models have merit.
Maybe it's the wave moving toward Pottery?
Actually the wave is west of him now. That's just ITCZ reading the discussion.
Cars are been pulled by streets converted into rivers.
Does anybody have links to an animated or time series cumulative rainfall site or presentation for major storm events? Something with extruded rain pixels or time series would be great.
A STRENGTHENING AND SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW /TROPICAL?/ MOVING
RIGHT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH
HEAVY RAIN RETURNING TO AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ONCE AGAIN...AM FAVORING THE WEAKER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
SHOWING EITHER A WEAKER LOW OR WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
AT A FASTER SPEED TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOL, the weather offices in Florida love the word lately too!
This is from the NWS in Melbourne:
SAT-SUN...FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND WILL
BE DETERMINING EXTENT OF DRYING THAT MANAGES TO WORK IN FROM THE
E-NE BY LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. PWAT DISCREPENCIES REMAIN
NOTEWORTHY...WITH 12Z SUNDAY NAM PWATS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH FOR
MUCH OF EC FL WHILE THE GFS HAS 2+ INCHES AREA WIDE AT THE SAME
TIME. NAM LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DRYING WHILE THE GFS IS HAVING
SOME PROBLEMS WITH DEVELOPING SPURIOUS LOOKING LOW IN THE GULF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF LOOKS THE MOST REASONABLE WITH A MORE GRADUAL
ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HAVE INDICATED HIGH
END SCT POPS EAST COAST AND NMRS/LKLY INLAND ON SAT...THEN TRIM A
BIT FOR SUNDAY WITH 30 NE COAST TO 40/50 REST OF THE AREA.
This is from the NWS in Miami area:
THE MID-LAT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIG SOUTH FRIDAY
DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH THE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE IS ALSO INDICATED BY
MOST MODELS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A RATHER WET FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND. STILL BELIEVE GFS MAY BE OVERDOING BY SHOWING
SPURIOUS AREAS OF RATHER HEAVY PRECIP...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
The NWS has some weird obsession with the word suddenly! LOL
Not only that, both weather offices have used it about 4 or 5 times in the last 3 days! hahaahaha
I wish I could contact them to ask why they suddenly have used "Spurious" so frequently lately, lol.
I'll have to remember to use the word whenever I hate to write a report for school in meteorology, hahahaha.
"Well I was observing convective development today, at times it was rather spurious as well, however, not too much to be dangerous. The ECMWF seems to have painted today's thunderstorm coverage well, while the GFS continues to develop spurious low pressure, which is far too spurious, even with today's spurious convective development". lol
I have to go, be back later.
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE ALEX DOMINATES THE WEATHER PICTURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM ALEX AND COVERS THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF ALEX. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N/33N BETWEEN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND GEORGIA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPANS THE AREA FROM SOUTH
CAROLINA TO MISSISSIPPI. SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE EAST OF 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
APPROACHES FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THANKS TO A 25N79W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
Have you seen the death toll so far and the ongoing flooding issues?.....Think Again Sir.
I just heard on the news that in Texas there was no loss of life. Is that wrong?
Texas was only in the outer Bands,
Lots of dry air to the north of it, though. That won't help development, especially if it pulls away from the ITCZ.
A few auto accidents yesterday, in Mexico, with deaths and we will probalby have more as the flooding continues over the next several days...Tropical systems do not distinguish between national borders (not to mention the thousands in Texas without power, etc.)...
Back to Bkfst,..
Sip,,ahhhhhhhhh
That is hilarious.
Cause I'm sure Mexicans just love their country being called "that clump of dirt to the south"...
What the he** is your problem man?
Are Mexicans a lower life form then Americans to you or something?
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
433 am CDT Thursday Jul 1 2010
...Short term (friday through Saturday night)...looks like model
output calculations are pretty congruent on the 00z cycle for forecast hour 00
to 36. Then from forecast hour 48 to 72, scatter begins to develop on the
problem of the barotropic wave off the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. Our skepticism remains for 6 to 8 inches of rain, but one
can almost understand why the model suite is picking this up. It
appears they're all grabbing an event associated with a satellite
feature that can be seen on the infrared and water vapor, that propagates
south against the mean layer flow. We believe that feature is being
grown in the grids and is winding up in several different positions,
or states of existence, depending on which model we look at. As of
Friday morning, for forecast hour 48, the European model (ecmwf) and GFS are the major
proponents of this feature, and the others, the Gem, UKMET, and NAM,
tend to dampen it. Through Saturday evening the naysayers get on the
bandwagon and develop the thing anywhere from Southwest Pass to off
Panama City. Then, with only the availability of the Gem, ECMWF, and
GFS, the European model (ecmwf) loses all track of it and the other two keep it
hanging around along the beach. As for this front, which looks like
it wants to stage a pas-de-deux with that barotropic feature, it is
bringing in dry air which shows propensity to arrive along the coast
by Friday. Probability of precipitation were scaled back into Friday, with a steep gradient
along the coast indicating rain offshore and dry inland. It is hard
for fronts to get this far south this time of year, because the
temperature gradients and absence of a strong jet stream, indirect
jet circulations, and ageostrophic forcing, all tending to be
minimal, and hence, we have frontolysis.
Long term (sunday through thursday)...the GFS keeps hanging tight
on the barotropic feature through forecast hour 240 wandering aimlessly around
the I-10 corridor between Mobile and Baton Rouge. Meanwhile the
wavenumber 5 picture indicates the overall dominance of an ridge at
500 mb, so the effect of this as a rainmaker may not be too far off
the mark. Bas it was said before, 6 to 8 inches and more every 6
hours looked wrong, and this cycle, the whole group backed off those
figures by almost a factor of two. We used the even smaller numbers
offered in HPC guidance...
Viewing: 701 - 751
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