Western Caribbean disturbance 99L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:33 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 99L) near the Cayman Islands is drifting eastwards towards Jamaica, and has changed little in organization this morning, but is very close to tropical depression status. The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; 3.85" inches has fallen over the past 48 hours at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Heavy rains will continue over the Cayman Islands today and spread to western Jamaica this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows that 99L has a well-defined surface circulation, but the center is exposed to view and 99L has a relatively meager amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is marginal for development, 15 - 20 knots, due to the clockwise flow of air around an upper-level high pressure system near the coast of Honduras. The high is bringing strong upper-level winds out of the southwest to 99L. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west and north of 99L, and the strong southwesterly winds over the storm are bringing some of this dry into into the core of the storm, keeping all the heavy thunderstorm development confined to the east side of the center. The waters beneath 99L are very warm, 29°C, but 99L will not be able to take advantage of these warm waters until the shear relaxes. The Hurricane Hunters will be in 99L around 11am EDT this morning to see if the storm is indeed a tropical depression.

Forecast for 99L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will stay marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, for the remainder of today, then decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Tuesday, as 99L positions itself more underneath the upper-level high near the coast of Honduras. Any motion by 99L to the southwest will tend to decrease the shear over 99L, and any motion to the north or east will increase the shear, so 99L's current eastwards drift is detrimental for development. Steering currents will be weak Wednesday through Friday in the Western Caribbean, making it difficult to predict where 99L may wander to, and how much shear might affect the storm. By Saturday, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in to the north of 99L, forcing the storm on a generally westward track. This should allow 99L to find an environment with less shear. The GFDL and HWRF model predicts a more west-northwestward track, with 99L passing through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Sunday or Monday as a hurricane. The GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS models predict a more west-southwesterly path, with 99L making landfall in Belize Sunday or Monday. NHC is giving 99L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday; I'd put these odds at 80%, and expect this will become Tropical Storm Richard by Thursday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Death toll from Super Typhoon Megi in the Philippines remarkably low
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the full extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still unclear. However, the death toll from the great storm stands at only 19, reflecting the superior effort Philippines officials made to evacuate low-lying areas and get people out of locations prone to flash flooding and mudslides. Previous major typhoons to strike the Philippines have nearly always killed hundreds, and sometime thousands, so the preparation and evacuation efforts for Megi likely saved hundreds of lives. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Severe damage was done to Isabela Province in northern Luzon, and media reports indicate that 200,000 people are homeless.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Megi from NASA's Aqua satellite taken at 1:30am EDT October 20, 2010. At the time, Megi was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has intensified into a formidable Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China Sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to remain a very dangerous major typhoon through Friday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall north of Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon, bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China. The outer rain bands of Megi are already affecting the coast of China north of Hong Kong, as seen on Hong Kong radar and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Still frame of damage to NE Luzon Island from a video posted to YouTube by storm chaser James Reynolds of typhoonfury.com.

Next update
I'll have an update later today, with the timing depending upon what the Hurricane Hunters find.

Jeff Masters

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455. stormpetrol
09:10 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
COC of 99L getting underneath the convection now, TD/TS by 11 pm tonight IMO
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7930
452. RipplinH2O
07:29 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
That's not Storm...
Member Since: Juli 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
451. rmbjoe1954
07:28 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting WStormW:
Hey guys, hope everyone is doing well :)


ohhhhhhhhh noooooooooooo
Member Since: Juni 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1361
450. Jax82
07:27 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
449. CaicosRetiredSailor
07:25 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Typhoon Megi Leaves Northern Philippine Towns in Ruins

Rural towns in the northern Philippines are on alert after warnings that heavy rains from Typhoon Megi could continue through the night.

Megi left rural towns in the farming province of Isabela in ruins as it barrelled past with strong winds, blowing away rooftops and destroying homes made of light materials.

Downed trees, house appliances, and roof sheets littered the streets, as residents were busy reconstructing their homes. Walls were splattered with mud and windows lay cracked.

Power has not been restored.

On Tuesday soldiers joined residents in clearing fallen trees and patching up houses that had lost their roofing and walls.

Officials said some towns facing east to the Pacific Ocean remained unreachable.

Most houses appeared to have been destroyed after Megi hit land as a category 5 super typhoon with winds in excess of 150 m/h on Monday.
Link


Member Since: Juli 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
448. stillwaiting
07:24 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
if thats really u storm,where do u live and we'rd u graduate from...and if it rwaaly is u,hello,hope alls well!!
Member Since: Oktober 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
447. pottery
07:23 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting reedzone:


Don't start that stuff, i'm just giving my personal opinion about what could happen with 99L.

Please accept my apology.
Member Since: Oktober 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24374
446. kshipre1
07:21 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
hey storm!! how are you?! surprise to see you on here
Member Since: Juli 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
445. caneswatch
07:21 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting aprinz1979:
Nah he's got an extra W on there!


Still, it might be.......
Member Since: Oktober 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
444. KeysieLife
07:21 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Hello StormW! What's your take on 99L's future?
Ummm...whatever the NHC says...OH!!! LOL Too soon? =)
Member Since: September 10, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 409
443. reedzone
07:20 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting pottery:

Heh!
But is it going to pump the ridge?


Don't start that stuff, i'm just giving my personal opinion about what could happen with 99L.
Member Since: Juli 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
442. aprinz1979
07:20 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting caneswatch:


It can't be...........can it?
Nah he's got an extra W on there!
Member Since: Oktober 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
441. Stormchaser2007
07:19 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: Juni 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15920
440. pottery
07:19 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
The GFDL makes alot more sense on this run, course it is the 12Z run, a better, amplified run. A major slamming into Mexico, then catches a trough in the GOM, moves NE. Very umm, Wilma like. It's a possible scenario. Not buying the HWRF yet, too far north. I believe that conditions will get favorable as predicted and this may surprise lots of umm downcasters in here ;)

Heh!
But is it going to pump the ridge?
Member Since: Oktober 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24374
439. FtMyersgal
07:18 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting WStormW:
Hey guys, hope everyone is doing well :)


Hello StormW! What's your take on 99L's future?
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
438. reedzone
07:17 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
The GFDL makes alot more sense on this run, course it is the 12Z run, a better, amplified run. A major slamming into Mexico, then catches a trough in the GOM, moves NE. Very umm, Wilma like. It's a possible scenario. Not buying the HWRF yet, too far north. I believe that conditions will get favorable as predicted and this may surprise lots of umm downcasters in here ;)
Member Since: Juli 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
437. Seastep
07:17 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Winds steady WSW now (even a due W in there) at 42057 and pressure falling rapidly. Currently at 1007.5mb,

Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
436. kwgirl
07:16 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting Waltanater:
Maybe the body count is low because they actually evacuated the area before hand. They are very rigorous there. When they prepare they act as if they are going to war.
I thought of that after I posted. I hope so. Unfortunately, when they call for an evac in the Keys,not all the locals go. So I was thinking it could be the same there. But you are correct, different government.
Member Since: Mars 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
435. DookiePBC
07:16 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting tropicfreak:


We are all doomed.


*sigh* How many times do we have to say it!? It is not "We are all doomed."...it is "WE ARE ALL DOOM!!" Notice, the all caps and the lack of an "ED" at the end. And for crying out loud, you can't end it with a period. At least 2 exclamation points minimum. Hope that helps.
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
433. pottery
07:14 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Only one?
Well, to start with...
Member Since: Oktober 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24374
432. TampaTom
07:14 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting WStormW:
Hey guys, hope everyone is doing well :)


Uhhhh....

Errr....

Ummm....
Member Since: Juni 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
431. DookiePBC
07:14 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Levi...

Once again, excellent work my friend!
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
430. Waltanater
07:13 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting kwgirl:
If the shelters are gone, so are the people. Maybe the body count is low because they can't find them. God help those poor souls.
Maybe the body count is low because they actually evacuated the area before hand. They are very rigorous there. When they prepare they act as if they are going to war.
Member Since: Maj 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
429. scott39
07:12 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
IGNORE!!!
Member Since: Juni 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
427. scott39
07:12 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


GFDL / TCVN / ECMWF all in fairly good agreement. That should get folks attention as it's looking more and more likely there will be a Hurricane somewhere in the NW Caribbean in 4 to 5 days.
Well there it is!
Member Since: Juni 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
425. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
07:10 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #61
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
3:00 AM JST October 21 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Megi (945 hPa) located at 18.6N 117.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northern quadrant
240 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.5N 117.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 22.2N 117.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 23.8N 116.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
Member Since: Maj 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45561
424. caneswatch
07:10 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting WStormW:
Hey guys, hope everyone is doing well :)


It can't be...........can it?
Member Since: Oktober 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
423. CyclonicVoyage
07:09 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting reedzone:
The EURO finally jumps on the bandwagon, the GFS stands alone.



GFDL / TCVN / ECMWF all in fairly good agreement. That should get folks attention as it's looking more and more likely there will be a Hurricane somewhere in the NW Caribbean in 4 to 5 days.
Member Since: Januari 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
421. scott39
07:08 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...

WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY 10-15 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A 1007 MB
LOW NEAR 18N83W HAS LOST ALL NEARBY CONVECTION TODAY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT S THROUGH FRI THEN MOVE W TOWARD THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA SAT AND SUN. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY FRI...AND THE LOW MAY DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL AMERICA.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml


Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...

WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY 10-15 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A 1007 MB
LOW NEAR 18N83W HAS LOST ALL NEARBY CONVECTION TODAY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT S THROUGH FRI THEN MOVE W TOWARD THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA SAT AND SUN. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY FRI...AND THE LOW MAY DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL AMERICA.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml


And the loop begins!
Member Since: Juni 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
420. kwgirl
07:08 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting victoriahurricane:


I believe you're talking about Monaconan which was completely destroyed, even the schools (meant as shelters) were blown away, no buildings left standing there.
If the shelters are gone, so are the people. Maybe the body count is low because they can't find them. God help those poor souls.
Member Since: Mars 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
419. reedzone
07:08 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
EURO takes 99L to Louisiana as a weak remnant low. by 192 hours.
Member Since: Juli 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
418. CaicosRetiredSailor
07:08 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Only one?
Member Since: Juli 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
417. pottery
07:07 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmmm your on early...
Your using Logic...
Your talking weather..
Your using common sense and decorum...

Who are you? what did you do with Sir Pottery???

LOL
It's OK.
I am in a time/identity warp.
Happens quite often.
Member Since: Oktober 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24374
416. reedzone
07:04 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
The EURO finally jumps on the bandwagon, the GFS stands alone.

Member Since: Juli 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
415. pottery
07:04 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

Nah!!
I refer to the fact that the Discussion is saying that Central America is the landfall for 99L.
You are just trying to draw me into a furious argument, based on the placement of the letter 'r'.
Well, that line of thinking will get you nowhere!
In fact, with an attitude like yours, I have one thing to say.... "meet me outside!!"
and I'll buy you a beer.
heheheheh
Member Since: Oktober 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24374
414. TOMSEFLA
07:02 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
still waiting for levi update
413. Orcasystems
07:01 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting pottery:

Your point is taken...
but there is only so much that can be said, about the one existing Invest right now.
Most people on here (like me) are monitoring the situation and there are relevant comments being made all the time, between the other stuff.
A little relief is good...

Read back for all the latest info.
It's all there.


Hmmm your on early...
Your using Logic...
Your talking weather..
Your using common sense and decorum...

Who are you? what did you do with Sir Pottery???
Member Since: Oktober 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
412. tropicfreak
06:59 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:




We are all doomed.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
411. CyclonicVoyage
06:58 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


That's the one the NHC uses. Any intensity forecast for that model.


Member Since: Januari 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
410. pottery
06:56 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting dayton:
I don't mean to complain, but this is the forum I always liked to come to to get the most insightful and accurate tropical forecasts. Sadly, I've noticed over time it has turned into a hodge-podge of mostly silly talk that has nothing to do with weather.

I still recognize some of the names that I had come to respect, but, some others are no longer to be found. Many new names have popped up. That would be fine if they would stick to the subject matter. I know I have no authority on here...but can you all PLEASE get back to what this forum is to be about. Leave the juvenile jokes, sports center talk, recipe ideas, etc., etc. out of this forum.

Dr. Masters, I hope you agree...

Your point is taken...
but there is only so much that can be said, about the one existing Invest right now.
Most people on here (like me) are monitoring the situation and there are relevant comments being made all the time, between the other stuff.
A little relief is good...

Read back for all the latest info.
It's all there.
Member Since: Oktober 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24374
409. CaicosRetiredSailor
06:56 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting pottery:

So, what happened to the Florida Threater???


Do you mean Florida Theatre?

I believe it is still well represented here.
Member Since: Juli 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
408. Orcasystems
06:56 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Oktober 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
407. muddertracker
06:55 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Dayton...lighten up. Taz takes care of policing the blog, so you're off the hook.
Member Since: Augusti 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
406. pottery
06:52 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...

WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY 10-15 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A 1007 MB
LOW NEAR 18N83W HAS LOST ALL NEARBY CONVECTION TODAY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT S THROUGH FRI THEN MOVE W TOWARD THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA SAT AND SUN. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY FRI...AND THE LOW MAY DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL AMERICA.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml



So, what happened to the Florida Threater???
Member Since: Oktober 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24374
405. aspectre
06:52 PM GMT on Oktober 20, 2010
Invest 99L had been heading 3.2degrees east of SouthSouthEast
18Oct 06pmGMT - 14.6n82.3w - 25knots - 1010mb - ATCF*15.7n83.2w*14.5n82.2w
19Oct 12amGMT - 15.3n82.8w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*15.0n82.6w*15.1n82.7w
19Oct 06amGMT - 16.0n83.1w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*15.7n83.0w*1008mb*15.8n82.9w
19Oct 12pmGMT - 16.7n83.3w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*16.5n83.3w*1008mb*16.5n83.0w
19Oct 06pmGMT - 17.4n83.4w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*17.0n83.0w*1009mb
20Oct 12amGMT - 17.7n83.2w - 30knots - 1009mb - ATCF*17.6n83.4w
20Oct 06amGMT - 17.8n82.9w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF
20Oct 12pmGMT - 17.7n82.5w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*1007mb
20Oct 06pmGMT - 17.1n82.2w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers
20knots=~37km/h _ 25knots=46.3km/h _ 30knots=~55.6km/h

Copy&paste 14.6n82.3w, 15.3n82.8w, 16.0n83.1w, 16.7n83.3w, 17.4n83.4w-17.7n83.2w, 17.7n83.2w-17.8n82.9w, 17.8n82.9w-17.7n82.5w, 17.7n82.5w-17.1n82.2w, ctm, cyo into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24^hours

Member Since: Augusti 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.