Tomas gradually strengthening; 14 dead in St. Lucia from the storm
The islands of St. Lucia, Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines continue to assess damage and clean up after Hurricane Tomas pounded the Lesser Antilles as a strengthening Category 1 hurricane with 90 - 95 mph winds on Saturday. St. Lucia was hardest hit, with fourteen people dead, many more missing, and damage estimated at $100 million--about 10% of the nation's GDP. Damage on neighboring St. Vincent was estimated at $62 million, which is 4% of that nation's GDP. The storm damaged 1,200 houses, and the northern half of the island, where most of the crops are, was badly hit, with no banana trees left standing and the plantain crop wiped out. Banana production employs 60% of the workforce on St. Vincent, and accounts for more than 50% of their exports. Also hard-hit was Barbados, where damage estimates are at $55 million, 1.5% of the nation's GDP. Tomas may be the most damaging storm to affect the island since Hurricane Janet of 1955. The havoc wreaked by Tomas in the Lesser Antilles makes is likely that the name Tomas will be retired from the list of active hurricane names in the Atlantic.
Figure 1. Torrential rains from Tomas triggered massive flooding on St. Lucia that destroyed several bridges and severely damaged roads. Image credit: St. Lucia Star.
Tomas gradually strengthening
Satellite loops of Tomas show a considerably more organized storm than yesterday, with a modest but increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. However, low-level spiral bands are limited, and upper-level outflow is weak, and Tomas is not in danger of building an eyewall today. Curacao radar shows that the echoes from Tomas are disorganized, with no spiral banding apparent. Wind shear has declined to a moderate 10 -15 knots and the atmosphere in the Caribbean has moistened over the past day, allowing Tomas to re-organize. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to Tomas this morning, and will have a better estimate of the storm's strength by early this afternoon.
Figure 2. Curacao radar at 10:07am EDT on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, showed a large area of rain associated with Tomas over the central Caribbean, but these echoes were poorly organized.
Track forecast for Tomas
The ridge of high pressure pushing Tomas to the west has weakened, allowing Tomas to slow down slightly to a forward speed of 10 mph this morning. This speed will decrease further to 5 mph tonight, as a trough of low pressure approaches the eastern U.S. and breaks down the ridge. By Wednesday, the trough to Tomas' north should be able to pull the storm to the northwest. Tomas' outer spiral bands will bring heavy rains to southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica beginning on Thursday night. The computer models have come into better agreement that Tomas will turn more to the north-northeast by Friday, with Haiti or Jamaica the most likely landfall locations. NHC is giving Port-au-Prince, Haiti, a 50% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 6% chance of hurricane force winds. These odds are 45% and 7%, respectively for Kingston, Jamaica, and 23% and 3% for Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.
Tomas may stall
The models are increasingly suggesting the once Tomas begins moving to the north-northeast, the trough pulling the storm that direction will lift out, stranding Tomas in a region of weak steering currents. Tomas may then wander and dump heavy rains for several days, Saturday through Monday. Given recent model trends, I believe this is likely, but the exact location where Tomas might be stranded is uncertain. The NOGAPS model gives a nightmare scenario for Haiti, with Tomas remaining stationary just off the coast from Port-Au-Prince as a hurricane for many days. The UKMET stalls Tomas over the Turk and Caicos Islands, while the GFS, GFDL, and ECMWF models predict Tomas will stall several hundred miles north of Hispaniola and drift eastwards. It's reasonable to go with the model consensus and predict Tomas will pass over western Haiti and stall far enough north of the nation so that heavy rains will not linger over Hispaniola for many days. The uncertainties in the track forecast are greater than usual, though.
Intensity forecast for Tomas
Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model has dropped to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, and is predicted to stay low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the remainder of the week. The relaxation of shear should allow Tomas to continue to re-organize over the next few days. Aiding this process will be an increasingly moist atmosphere. Dry air has decreased significantly over the past 24 hours, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery, and the models predict a very moist atmosphere will surround Tomas for the remainder of the week. With SSTs at a record warm 29.5°C and a very high ocean heat content, there is a substantial danger that Tomas will undergo a period of rapid intensification once it rebuilds its inner core and establishes an eyewall. This is not likely to happen today, but could occur as early as Wednesday night. This may give Tomas sufficient time to intensify into a major hurricane before landfall in Haiti or Jamaica, as predicted by the GFDL model. The most reasonable intensity forecast at this point is to call for a landfall on Friday at Category 2 strength, but Tomas could easily be anywhere from Category 1 to Category 3 hurricane strength on Friday. NHC is giving Tomas a 19% chance of reaching Category 3+ strength; I believe these odds are higher, 40%. With the atmosphere expected to be very moist, it is likely that Tomas will dump very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches over much of Haiti, even if Tomas strikes as a tropical storm. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing heavy loss of life due to extreme floods running down Haiti's deforested mountain slopes. Portlight.org is preparing to send their mobile kitchen with enough food to feed 500 people per day, if Tomas continues on its current forecast path.
Figure 3. Plot of all Category 1 and stronger hurricanes to pass within 50 miles of Barbados since reliable record keeping began in 1851. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Barbados hurricane history
Tomas is the strongest hurricane to affect Barbados since Category 3 Hurricane Allen of 1980, which passed just north of the island. Allen did $4 million in damage, compared to Tomas' $55 million. The deadliest hurricane in Barbados history was the Category 5 Great Hurricane of 1780, which killed approximately 4500 people on the island, and leveled every building, including the stone governor's mansion. The Great Hurricane of 1780 was also the Atlantic's deadliest hurricane of all-time, with 22,000 fatalities, mostly in the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Next update
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
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THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.
If you believe in prayer, start praying. If you don't, start hoping. One way or another, this could end up being catastrophic...
The more south and west tomas goes, the more Jamaica comes into play and even Eastern Cuba, I still think a right hook between the caymans and jamaica as a cat 3 then over eastern cuba , thats just my take though!
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AND MOVE ACROSS HAITI AND INTO THE ATLC OVR THE WEEKEND BOTH THE
GFES AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW TOMAS MEANDERING SOUTH OF HAITI
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THIS SUGGESTS LOTS OF UNCERTANTIES
BETWEEN THE RESPECTIVE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND THE
OVERALL FCST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
From the 10AM PR DISCUSSION...
Complete Update
AOI
TSPN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Link1 - Link 2
Coordinates: 16.0667N 69.1167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.5 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,741 meters (~ 25,397 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 423 meters (~ 1,388 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 338° at 8 knots (From the NNW at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: -16.0°C (~ 3.2°F)
Dew Pt: -17.4°C (~ 0.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 37 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
i think they'll find a 60-70 mph ts
The confirmation was made by the Ministry of Health through Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Merlene Fredericks at around 9:15 pm November 1st, 2010.
The confirmed dead were recovered with assistance from NEMO personnel from land slippage areas in Soufriere.
Rain rate for last 12 hrs. The worst of Tomas looks to have produced 7+inches in that time.
AT LEAST 14 people have been killed in St Lucia after tropical storm Tomas struck the Caribbean island triggering deadly landslides.
The exact number of deaths has not been revealed by St Lucia's prime minister Stephenson King, who conducted an aerial survey of Tomas' damage to his country. But he did say that worst-hit town of Soufriere was inaccessible and has declared a state of emergency and appealed for international assistance.
He said: "Everyone is locked in and no one can leave or get in by road or by phone so there are persons who need help but cannot be reached,” he said. “It’s not just a question of clearing these roads because there are sections of the network that have completely disappeared so that we are just going to have to find another way in and out of the town."
Tourism minister Allan Chastanet told local radio that Soufrière had been worst resembled "a war zone".
Bridges were reported to be down, cutting off the capital Castries from the rest of the island.
Widespread damage was also caused on the nearby island of St Vincent.
It is now thought that the storm, which was downgraded from a hurricane, was veering towards Haiti where some 1.3 million people are still living in tents following January's earthquake where 230,000 perished.
Forecasters have warned that Tomas could strengthen again to a hurricane and that parts of Haiti are in its projected path for later in the week.
United Nations humanitarian co-ordinator Nigel Fisher said relief workers in Haiti were trying to gather emergency shelter, water and sanitation supplies.
"We need as much of it as possible in place before Tomas hits," he said.
"Right now they just need to stay tuned - this is the stage to be aware," said John Cangialosi at the US Hurricane Center in Miami.
The damage caused by Tomas is estimated to be more than US$100 million.
So far, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) has indicated that its preliminary calculations indicate that St Lucia will get a payout of about US$3.2 million, St Vincent and the Grenadines US$1.1 million and Barbados – which was the first to feel Tomas – will get US$8.5 million.
Still a couple of days. Things will be much clearer on Thursday.
As a basis for comparison, the US GDP for 2009 was roughly $14.2 trillion, so a 4% hit such as St. Vincents incurred would be like a $560,000,000,000 ($560 billion) disaster here in the States, while a 10% hit would be equivalent to $1,400,000,000,000 ($1.4 trillion)--or more than 15 Hurricane Katrina-scale disasters. All at once.
COTONOU, Benin - The U.N. says flooding in Benin has affected more than half a million people, destroyed more than 300,000 acres of crops and killed 81,000 livestock.
A statement released Monday by the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says flood waters have affected at least 680,000 people in the West African nation. A World Food Program spokesman warned that food has become a critical issue in the region.
Aid workers also fear an outbreak of cholera, a bacterial infection spread through contaminated water.
Flooding began in mid-September when heavy rains caused the Niger River in Benin's north to overflow. Rainfall continues across the country.
Heavy rains and the breakage of a dam in nearby Ghana have displaced more than 700,000 people.
Would expect the IMF to step in here. Exactly what it is for.
No way to candy coat this one. If not the wind, the rain. My prayers to all in it's path.
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT TO THESE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
MARK
14.10N/71.73W
Average Position Error (nm) Tomas models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
CMC INCREASING 63.5 98.3 124.3 242 304.9
UKMT DECREASING 64.3 95.1 95.3 -1 -1
AEMI INCREASING 65.4 108.6 166.7 -1 -1
GFDL INCREASING 67.7 142.7 143.1 -1 -1
AEMN DECREASING 68.3 109.9 167.4 -1 -1
OFCL INCREASING 71.1 107.9 113.6 155.1 -1
HWRF DECREASING 74.3 155.7 186.5 265.9 400.3
KHRM DECREASING 82.1 246.2 411.4 -1 -1
LBAR INCREASING 102.4 195.2 191.2 297.1 558.8
BAMD INCREASING 110.4 198.6 197.5 152.9 184.8
MM5B INCREASING 173.3 350 170.4 274.3 527.1
MM5E INCREASING 236.5 508.1 472.2 -1 -1
Coordinates: 15.4167N 71.0333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,584 meters (~ 5,197 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1012.1 mb (~ 29.89 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 110° at 26 knots (From the ESE at ~ 29.9 mph)
Air Temp: 16.8°C (~ 62.2°F)
Dew Pt: 2.1°C (~ 35.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 27 knots (~ 31.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
strong winds still far from the coc
here comes the pusher
AS in like the strongest winds are seperated fron the CoC or the winds are increasing and they are still far away from the CoC?
Thursday will be the day when it should be pretty much known and there is no immediate danger to anyone until that time.
Hopefully everyone is breathing a sigh of relief that a possible catastrophe was avoided.
I remain optimistic.
42. Inactivity, the winds are increasing and they are still far away from the CoC? that's my take
Don't know that I'm being fatalistic; realistic seems more like it, given the current forecasts. But realism and optimism aren't mutually incompatible; I--sadly, hesitatingly--accept the former, while stubbornly clinging to the latter.
mmmm could be
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