Hurricane Irene Weakens on its Approach to North Carolina
As of 300AM EDT, Hurricane Irene was located at 33.7N, 76.5W, 60 miles south of Cape Lookout. It was moving north-northeast at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, making it a Category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Irene has a minimum central pressure of 952 mb.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for the US Atlantic coast from the Little River inlet in North Carolina to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts. Tornado watches are also in effect for the North Carolina/Virginia/Maryland coast. Figure 1 shows the hurricane, tropical storm, and tornado watches and warnings for Irene. Remember, a hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected, and tropical storm force winds (greater than 34 mph) will occur within 36 hours. Tropical storm warning means that tropical storm force winds are expected in the next 36 hours, but hurricane conditions are not. A tropical storm watch means tropical storm force winds are possible within 48 hours.
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes. FEMA also has a blog describing their response to Irene.
Figure 1 Map of watches and warnings taken at 225AM EDT, August 27, 2011
Satellite Views
Figure 2 shows that Irene is a large storm, with outflow reaching from South Carolina to Long Island, NY. Irene's eye is not visible.
Figure 2 IR satellite view of Irene taken at 226AM EDT, August 27, 2011
Track Forecast
Irene is forecast to make landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday morning as a category 1 storm with sustained winds around 90 mph. I believe that Irene's center of circulation will make landfall somewhere between Cape Lookout and Okracoke on the Outer Banks around 9-10 am. Irene should then move roughly north, along the mid-Atlantic coastline before making landfall in western Long Island. However, it is important to not focus solely on the track forecast. Irene is a large storm with a large windfield and equally large areas of storms and showers. It's impact will be felt over a wide swath of the northeastern US.
Figure 3 Official track forecast of Irene at 11PM EDT, Aug. 26.
Irene and Flooding
Six to ten inches of rain are possible along Irene's track from North Carolina north into New England, with 15 inches possible in isolated areas. Radar estimates indicate at least 5 inches have already fallen near Morehead City, NC. As a result, flooding is very likely. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) has issued their Significant River Flood Outlook for the next five days shown in figure 4. HPC thinks that river flooding from the Delmarva peninsula to northwestern Maine is likely, while river flooding in much of the rest of the northeastern US is possible.
Figure 4 Significant River Flood Outlook issued by HPC.
Impacts
Tropical storm forces winds are occuring at Cape Lookout now, with hurricane force winds expected on the North Carolina coast later today. Use this Wundermap to keep track of how the winds are behaving around the North Carolina coastline. Within the hurricane warning area in North Carolina, storm surge is expected to be 6-11 feet above ground. This is our storm surge forecast map. To see how high the tides are running, NOAA has an excellent page collecting all of the relevant tide gauges.
People living on the the east coast of the US from the Carolinas to Cape Cod should continue monitoring Irene and be in the process of finishing their hurricane preparations. If you have not started preparing for this storm, start immediately. If an evacuation order is given, please follow it, unless it is unsafe to do so. Irene will be a large storm, impacting areas far from the storm center track.
Links
If you're curious about power outages, here are some maps: Dominion Power Outage Map (NC/VA), Progress Energy Outage Map (NC/SC), and NOVEC Outage Map (Northern Virginia).
Dr. Masters will have a new blog entry this morning, and there will be another blog this afternoon. I'll be back with another blog entry late tonight.
Stay safe,
Dr. Rob Carver
Reader Comments
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Depends what it is. If it really is an 80, I don't know if it has much more life as a hurricane.
I know why they do it, but I have a tree situation where I have a breaking point of when it makes little sense to be here. lol. So I'd like the straight dope, not the "alright, let's make sure EVERYONE is prepared so no one gets mad at us" approach.
I guess they try to tell you that with the parsing, but I feel like that leaves it up to me. lol.
Oh well, guess I'll see when I get up, where it goes and whether it looks like a sloppy sawed-off mess or more like it did earlier tonight.
Have a good night :)
VIPIR Interactive Radar
Once the page loads, click on options, un-check Storm Cells zoom out and pan over to the hurricane area, Then check Tropical Storms. The play button animates the radar images.
She's really been doing a lot of zig-zagging.
32.1n77.1w, 33.4n76.6w are now the most recent positions
Starting 26August_6amGMT and ending 27August_6amGMT
The 4 shorter line-segments represent HurricaneIrene's path
and the longest*northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
(*The red dot marking 95W is touching, almost bisecting the straightline projection)
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
H.Irene's travel-speed was 15.7mph(25.2k/h) on a heading of 17.9degrees(NNE)
H.Irene was headed toward passage over OcracokeIsland(W95)NorthCarolina ~4&1/2.hours from now
H.Irene was headed toward passage over RoanoakeIsland(MEO)NorthCarolina ~8hours from now
Copy&paste 28.8n77.3w-30.0n77.4w, 30.0n77.4w-31.1n77.5w, 31.1n77.5w-32.1n77.1w, 32.1n77.1w-33.4n76.6w, w95, 32.1n77.1w-35.129n75.910w, meo, 32.1n77.1w-35.826n75.618w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping (for 27August_12amGMT)
ROTFLMAO - I've never seen those before now. That's pretty damn funny!
No there isn't really a correlation in that regard...but a more deeper storm with a lower pressure usually is more resistant to weakening if it is large enough.
some organization this morning. The cloud tops have warmed
significantly in the western semicircle...and there is a lack of
convective banding in the southwestern quadrant in the radar data.
This suggests that dry air seen in water vapor imagery to the west
of Irene is starting to entrain into the hurricane. An Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft continues to observe 90-100 kt
winds at 700 mb over the eastern semicircle. However...the highest
surface wind estimates from the SFMR have only been 70-75 kt. The
initial intensity is reduced to 80 kt...and this could be a little
generous. Despite the decrease in convective organization...the
aircraft reports that the central pressure remains near 952 mb.
The initial motion is 020/12. Irene is west of the subtropical
ridge...with water vapor imagery showing a mid/upper-level
shortwave trough in the westerlies moving across the Great Lakes.
Irene should continue to move north-northeastward into the
westerlies during the next 36-48 hours...with the center moving
over eastern North Carolina...over or near the coast of the
mid-Atlantic states...and then over New England. After 48 hours...
the cyclone should turn northeastward and then east-northeastward
with an increase in forward speed as it reaches the core of the
westerlies. The new forecast track is an update of the previous
track and lies in the center of the guidance envelope.
Land interaction...dry air entrainment...and increasing vertical
wind shear should cause Irene to weaken as it moves along the U.S.
East Coast. However...the cyclone is expected to remain a
hurricane with a very large wind field until after landfall in New
England. Extratropical transition should occur after the New
England landfall...with Irene gradually weakening from 48-120 hr.
The radar presentation of the center of Irene has decreased to the
point that we will be reverting to three-hourly intermediate
advisories.
Forecast positions and Max winds
init 27/0900z 34.1n 76.5w 80 kt 90 mph
12h 27/1800z 35.7n 75.8w 75 kt 85 mph...inland
24h 28/0600z 38.4n 74.6w 70 kt 80 mph...over water
36h 28/1800z 41.9n 72.7w 65 kt 75 mph...inland
48h 29/0600z 46.3n 69.6w 50 kt 60 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
72h 30/0600z 54.0n 59.0w 40 kt 45 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
96h 31/0600z 57.0n 41.0w 40 kt 45 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
120h 01/0600z 58.0n 23.0w 35 kt 40 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
Well I said 228 miles out it would be 93 mph at land fall but it appears it is alittle weaker then even i thought it would be .That is a good thing for eastern NC.Good for everyone actually. Could be better by going completely away but Good enough.
Have a good day bloggers.
Dew
Overview of Tropical Cyclone Track Guidance
I dont remember who posted it, but thank you :)
cool ty for the info.
Link
wasn't the forecast for that invest to turn and fish halibut?
She's coming ashore at Morehead, NC. So how the heck is that going out to sea????
Not sure if I would agree with you reed, seems to be a bit optimistic. She is being surrounded by dry air, the front doesn't look to be bringing much moisture, and the "eye" is essentially dry with the exception of its northern component. Given her big size understand it'll take a bit to wind down, but would be surprised if she still is a hurricane by the time she reaches NE.
agreed....here they come cuz it's 5:40 am up the eastern seaboard and they have failed and/or refused to prepare. so instead of heading warning just to be safe they would rather come in and think they are Alister Crowley with a protractor at the neck of a billy goat with the power of god in their wishes......they never fail to amuse me......lmfao
Webcam from there http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-severe-weather- webcam
there's no such thing as a reliable forecast for an invest. Any attempt at forecasting an invest is jibberish at best. Computer models have very little accuracy at predicting the intensity of invests, which results in terrible track estimates. A faster developing invest is more likely to get picked up by troughs in the Atlantic, a weaker invest is more likely to bypass troughs and keep moving west to a more favorable (and for us dangerous) area. The invest you are probably talk about - models predicted it to be stronger, instead it weakened... so it may not get picked up by mid latitude troughs in the Atlantic, which means it might not turn out to be a fish afterall... assuming it even survives.
Thanks, I will check that out later. Levi's Tropical tidbits are a good education also
there is no forecast for an investment? i'm almost sure i saw forecasts for 97L (Irene) for a week prior to t.s. status. But ty for the info.
Do you have a rain gage at your location? I'm in Concord near Charlotte and the wind is steady out of the N but no rain which we could use
I meant to say there's no such thing as a reliable forecast for an invest. Anything can be just a forecast. Pretty sure I remember a time when Irene was just a blotch off the coast of Africa, prematurely deemed a fish.
Not much mid-level shear:
Steering currents are not all that strong right in front of Irene. She could meander and change tempo:
yup
Link
turning on the radar on that helps a lot comparing the center with where the coldest cloud tops are
With Irene, I was thinking maybe the NHC might think about updating/changing their warning system. Instead of just issuing the Saffir-Simpson scale for a storm when it begins to threaten land, perhaps they should issue a second rating, a "Threat Scale" as it were.
That scale could take into account the size, forward speed, direction, tides, barometric pressure, land features ahead of landfall, where the eye will be (landfalling or over water), etc. Maybe just a color code, i.e. Cat 1, Threat Red.
Some kind of married warning system would give a better picture to folks that just a SS scale would. Because this CAT 1 storm certainly will do more damage than say some small, fast-mover coming across the GOM and watering a dry Texas.
Dang, on radar it looks like the squal line is only about 30+ miles from Concord. That rain is just so close, hopefully you'll get lucky in the next few hours.
gusting to 45mph pressure is 993.98 and falling at momment .they are reporting no ocean over wash at high tide.you can watch this via web site http://www.hurricanetrack.com/tower1/tower1.html.c am is not working here but is here. weather data on other onehttp://www.hurricanetrack.com/
your welcome see ya
dew
If you have Google Earth installed, Heres the link:
Live Recon Data
Good Morning!
Looks pretty quiet out there in the Trop. Atl. and the rest of the Basin.
Except for Irene, of course.
I am a little surprised at that, for August 27th!
Good morning Pott. It is hard to believe we may have nothing to track come next week.
There are inch an hour rain fall totals inland. 8+inches for storm totals. I Wonder if this storm will be measured in ft. before it's done
that is not a bad idea. i also think the current coding system implies danger for only 2 facets of the reality hurricanes impose. i also believe miseducation and carelessness by most americans leads to misinformation. they hear cat 1, they have been shellshocked by smaller cat 1's and 2's in the GOM (like Gustav, that dont get me wrong affected a ton of good folks throughout South Central Louisiana (I worked claims around the Sunshine Bridge and other places too, effects were felt clear into La Place to Baton Rouge...) and then in the news one day, out to the back page the next, they have been shellshocked into believing "cat 1=nbd"....other factors are gonna come into play with this as well, especially if she comes into NYC proper with sustained cat winds. In Katrina around downtown there was absolute wind devastation above the top crest flood/crest line because the tall buildings pinched winds through alleys. it causes downbursts and increases wind speed dramatically. there are variables involved with n.j./nyc/boston/philly that aren't experienced as much in the deep south.....Not to mention the lax IRC building codes up the seaboard. Down here in the GOM we have to build way stronger due to the eventual peril we will experience.....Up there stuff is old, dilapidated, and isn't built nearly as strong....
so when you combine the variables....winds will have more of an effect of creating projectiles from dilapidated structures and less strict IRC building code, and the vertical structure of the populated cities is also going to cause more damage. I wouldnt wanna be on the 30th story of a building with the windows out in absolutely calm conditions at ground level, let alone during a t.s. or cat......
True.
And then by Thursday we may have 4 systems going.....
Weird season!
It has been strangely dry here. A little worrying for sure.
Record rainfall in June and up to second week in July, but since then we are below average by a good way.
Dew
Don't do that people, but if u choose to be stupid send your videos to "Screw It, Go Out There, Tape It".....you may get your video on T.V. and get 15 min of fame..... o.0 lmfao
the Top 10 entries from this hurricane will make it to the next round of voting for inclusion in the new 'Hurricane Week' specials we will tape here in Atlanta during the offseason. Just remember, we said the disclaimer, DONT GO OUT THERE.....kk back to you Al.....
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