91L no concern; more postcards from the AMS hurricane conference

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:12 PM GMT on April 18, 2012

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I'm in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida this week, where the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. Most of the Hurricane Specialists from the National Hurricane Center are here, and they are keeping an eye on the waters a few hundred miles east of Bermuda, where an extratropical storm has cut off from the jet stream and is slowly acquiring tropical characteristics. This system was designated Invest 91L last night by NHC. Ocean temperatures are around 20°C (68°F) in the region, which is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots. Nevertheless, 91L has managed to develop a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and may continue to show more organization as it moves slowly southeastward over the next day or two. I give 91L a close to 0% chance of becoming a named storm in the next two days, and NHC seems to have stopped issuing new products for the system. By the end of the week, 91L should get picked up by a trough of low pressure and move off to the northeast. The storm is not a threat to any land areas.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L. The island of Bermuda is seen at the left side of the image.

Global tropical cyclones and climate: current signal
Now, I'll summarize a few of the excellent talks given at this week's AMS hurricane conference. Dr. Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research talked about the impact of global warming on hurricane intensities. Using data beginning in 1975, the beginning of the satellite era, he showed that while the total number of hurricanes globally has decreased in recent years, the proportion of hurricanes that are of Category 4 - 5 intensity has increased by 40%. He showed that this change could be related to a 0.8°C increase in global temperature during the period. He concluded that when hurricanes form, they are finding that it is easier for them to reach higher intensities.

Sensitivity of the strongest hurricanes to ocean surface warmth
Dr. Jim Elsner of Florida State University showed that observations indicate a sensitivity of hurricane winds of 8.2 m/s +/- 1.19 per degree Centigrade of ocean warmth, using data in the Atlantic from 1981 - 2010 (for oceans areas warmer than 25°C.) Using a high resolution model (HiRAM) with 50 km resolution, a sensitivity of only 1.5 +/- .6 m/s was found, calling into question the usefulness of current models for assessing future hurricane activity.

How will climate change affect hurricane tracks?
Angela Colbert of the University of Miami used 17 global climate models, the BAM hurricane tracking model, and the Atlantic historical HURDAT data base to see how hurricane tracks might change in the future. She classified storms as either straight moving (which tend to hit the Caribbean or U.S. Gulf Coast), recurving landfalling (U.S. East Coast impacts), or recurving ocean storms that miss landfall. She projected a 6% increase in recurving ocean storms and an 8% decrease in straight-moving storms by the end of the century, due to climate change. A decrease of 1- 2 storms per decade is predicted for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and an increase of 1 - 2 storms per decade in the waters of the mid-Atlantic, and along the East Coast of Florida. This occurs primarily because of an increase in westerly winds over the Central Atlantic, and to a lesser degree, an eastward change in genesis location closer to the coast of Africa. Both of these factors would tend to increase the number of recurving storms.

Jeff Masters

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301. HurrikanEB
08:55 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
CPC seems to think that some areas of C & N FL up to Maine could get locally 4" to 6" of rain with some amounts not out of the question nearing 10". Crazy because even with 4" here in C FL we would get lots of run off as the ground is hard as a rock due to 6 months of almost no rain.



Albany, New York:
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.... QPF AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY IN QUESTION. AT THIS TIME...LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT WITH
POTENTIALLY UP TO 5 INCHES OCCURRING.
PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS YEAR
IS ABOUT HALF OF WHAT IT SHOULD BE. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA IS
RUNNING AROUND 5 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

Should be enough to just about end this drought in the northeast.
Member Since: Maj 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1336
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well if it does start a civil war i guess press will have to get out the old battle dress and suit up

Was it Wolf who got involved in Quebec? What about that tea party in Boston? ( probably to do with rip off taxes?)
What about those islands in the South Atlantic? Falklands/Malvina's! Etc. Etc.
I once tried to import a parrot across a European boarder; the customs official said why are you declaring it? Those things fly over here all the time! "Ive never seen one with a passport before!"
Member Since: Januari 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2079
S FL & the Keys could be in trouble with severe wx though with this gulf low while C FL gets inundated with what could be record rains.
Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
My guess would be a storm track further south into the gulf would lessen the overall severe wx threat but opens the door for a flood threat across FL.
Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting PlazaRed:

I don't know whether we should take this seriously but is there a possibility that this might lead to civil war? I mean with all these problems in the Middle East, over boarders, missile attacks, UN sanctions, NATO involvement etc?
Or is it just one of those boundary disputes that sells a lot of newspapers?


Depends on if China vetoes it in the Security Council or not...
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Quoting PlazaRed:

I don't know whether we should take this seriously but is there a possibility that this might lead to civil war? I mean with all these problems in the Middle East, over boarders, missile attacks, UN sanctions, NATO involvement etc?
Or is it just one of those boundary disputes that sells a lot of newspapers?
well if it does start a civil war i guess press will have to get out the old battle dress and suit up
Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53839
CPC seems to think that some areas of C & N FL up to Maine could get locally 4" to 6" of rain with some amounts not out of the question nearing 10". Crazy because even with 4" here in C FL we would get lots of run off as the ground is hard as a rock due to 6 months of almost no rain.

Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting caneswatch:


That might be what we're getting tomorrow here. It's been so nice but I can take a rainy day.
Yeah cloudy and breezy all day, it has kept the temps down a bit. Nice and refreshing.
Member Since: Augusti 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting StormTracker2K:


No, not yet but I'll give it a try.


I always have some when I have headaches and it works wonders. Hopefully it'll do the same for you.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good afternoon to you. How is the weather in Jamaica? Here we are in a few dry days,but things will once again turn wet by the weekend. Temperature in San Juan was 81F as of 4 PM AST.

I'm good...today is dry, but it has been generally wet here in Jamaica
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Just a reminder, but a week from today marks the 1 year anniversary of the April 25-27 Tornado Outbreak. It was the 2nd deadliest outbreak in recorded history with 342 people losing their lives. In modern times with such advanced technology and warning, the death total is staggering.


I had heard the local Tuscaloosa paper won the Pulitzer for their reporting. It may be worth checking for the weather history buffs.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's getting humid up here and cloudy. Looks as if some rain is pushing up into the FL Big Bend and is supposed to get here maybe later tonight.


That might be what we're getting tomorrow here. It's been so nice but I can take a rainy day.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Does wishing that I lived in Hawaii count?


Yep
Member Since: Juli 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting kwgirl:
What a Hoot! It reminds me of all the metes and bounds legal descriptions here in the Keys where they were paced off in the 1800's, or "meandered along the high tide mark". Everyone has a different pace. So when there was a problem with the legal description they thought they were losing land when in effect they were just correcting a really old problem. But the State line is something else. Poor man!

I don't know whether we should take this seriously but is there a possibility that this might lead to civil war? I mean with all these problems in the Middle East, over boarders, missile attacks, UN sanctions, NATO involvement etc?
Or is it just one of those boundary disputes that sells a lot of newspapers?
Member Since: Januari 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2079
A legendary TV icon known for his part in the American Bandstand, Oldest Teenager, and New Years Rocking Eve has passed away at the age of 82 today. R.I.P. Dick Clark...
Member Since: Augusti 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting nigel20:
Northern Trinidad is get quite a bit of rain..it's also interupting the cricket as well


Good afternoon to you. How is the weather in Jamaica? Here we are in a few dry days,but things will once again turn wet by the weekend. Temperature in San Juan was 81F as of 4 PM AST.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
If you live in Hawaii this one's for you

Does wishing that I lived in Hawaii count?
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Presslord, we have a problem...


North Carolina-South Carolina State Line Redrawn
What a Hoot! It reminds me of all the metes and bounds legal descriptions here in the Keys where they were paced off in the 1800's, or "meandered along the high tide mark". Everyone has a different pace. So when there was a problem with the legal description they thought they were losing land when in effect they were just correcting a really old problem. But the State line is something else. Poor man!
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If you live in Hawaii this one's for you
Member Since: Juli 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting RitaEvac:
Presslord, we have a problem...


North Carolina-South Carolina State Line Redrawn


Carolina's. LOL;)
Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting presslord:
Nea: the street I live on runs exactly parallel to the Atlantic Ocean...and several streets run parallel to my street...at almost equi-distant points, other streets cross mine (as well as the others running parallel in the same direction) at almost perfect right angles...and this phenomenon runs in this manner for several miles...How can you not clearly see what this illustrates?!?!?!!?! Oh yea...there's a traffic circle...I forgot to mention the traffic circle...

Just a note Press but you could be in a very significant Area:-
The Plains of Nazca Etc.

http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=the+plains+of+na zca&hl=en&safe=off&qscrl=1&nord=1&rlz=1T4ADRA_enES 400ES400&prmd=imvns&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa= X&ei=ox6PT5CWGuKn0QW-y5HiAQ&sqi=2&ved=0CC4QsAQ&biw =1304&bih=605
Member Since: Januari 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2079
Presslord, we have a problem...


North Carolina-South Carolina State Line Redrawn
Member Since: Juli 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting kwgirl:
Isn't it nice to reminisce? Remembering our slightly wild teenage years that got us knowledgable about illicit drugs? Though I stood on the sidelines watching more than partaking, I would think it is somewhat dumb to think that most teenagers from the 60's did not experiment with grass as well as alcohol. Anyway, it was pretty wild around here then. I think it just went underground when the man got educated. Now, wouldn't know where to get it and probably can't afford it. I have stopped drinking too. By choice!Imagine that! Doesn't mean I am getting old.....even though I am :(
We lived on a boat in the 70,s and the Keys were a more then regular place to visit...Man did we have a blast. Speaking of blast, if this pans out, we will have freeze warnings again. We could do without this.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21209
Dick Clark died :(
Member Since: Februari 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3745
Northern Trinidad is getting quite a bit of rain..it's also interupting the cricket as well
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Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53839
Just a reminder, but a week from today marks the 1 year anniversary of the April 25-27 Tornado Outbreak. It was the 2nd deadliest outbreak in recorded history with 342 people losing their lives. In modern times with such advanced technology and warning, the death total is staggering. Thoughts and prayers go out to those are still recovering physically and mentally as they begin to reminisce on what happened to them a year ago.

Tuscaloosa, AL:



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Quoting caneswatch:


A Coke?


No, not yet but I'll give it a try.
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Member Since: Augusti 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38509
Dick Clark has passed on.

Dick Clark Dies: TV Legend Dead At 82

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Dick Clark has died.
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Quoting wxmojo:
All the howling tells me everything I need to know.

It is time that I shake the dust off my feet from this blog.

I bid adieu, and God bless.
So soon.?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21209
Quoting jeffs713:


You obviously lack basic observation skills. ;)
not enough to see you quoted before my revision :)
witness my english major in action!!
(capitalize.. what's That mean??)
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FXUS62 KTBW 181755AFDTBWAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL154 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012.SHORT TERM TODAY-FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA IS NOW DEPARTING TO THE NE AS A WEAKENING LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE PANHANDLE GULF COAST. THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE FL BIG BEND AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. LATEST VIS/MSAS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS FROM 17Z SHOW THAT MOST OF THE MAIN LINE IS BREAKING APART...WITH WEAKENING SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL NOT RETREAT FAR EAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COMPLETELY CLEAR THE AREA...KEEPING SOME SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT LINGERING OVER THE AREA. THEN OVERNIGHT...SOME CELLS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WARMER COASTAL WATERS AND DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH 20 POPS IN PLACE FOR ALL THE MARINE ZONES AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SEA BREEZES BECOME THE FOCAL POINT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND. 30-40 POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR EACH AFTERNOON.AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...COOLER ALONG THE COAST. MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND SOUTH...AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST..LONG TERM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH FORECAST TO CUTOFF AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND THEN OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING SUNDAY AND THEN NORTHEAST UP INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT LEADING TO THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WE HAVE SEEN IN MANY WEEKS AND LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE POPS EVEN HIGHER AS TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS DECENT SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS SETUP ACROSS THE REGION. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRINGING SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK..AVIATION...SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH SHORE...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BROKEN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS LIMITING DESTABILIZATION OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES...AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AS A RESULT...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING A GOOD SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA COAST. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY GOOD PROBABILITY OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PUSH ONSHORE AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION VCSH TO INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT VFR LEVELS. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL...BUT PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME..MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY FORM. BY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY....A STRONG MID LVL TROUGH DROPS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF REGION...BRINGING A ROBUST COLD FRONT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH OR EXCEED THE 30 KNOTS RANGE ALONG WITH SEAS WELL ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. MARINERS MUST REMAIN WELL INFORMED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. .FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING MOISTURE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME..PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...TPA 70 84 69 83 / 20 20 10 30 FMY 69 87 67 86 / 20 40 10 30 GIF 68 87 67 86 / 20 40 10 40 SRQ 70 83 68 83 / 20 20 10 30 BKV 65 85 62 84 / 20 30 10 30 SPG 73 83 71 82 / 20 20 10 30 .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FL...NONE.GULF WATERS...NONE.SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...22/ARLONG TERM/AVIATION...21/JELSEMA
Member Since: Augusti 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38509
It looks like once again starting this weekend,Puerto Rico will be in the rainy pattern that has dominated for most of 2012.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST WED APR 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE CORE OF AN 80 KNOT JET WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ON THURSDAY
EVENING. A WEAK TROUGH WITH A JET CORE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WIDE AND RELATIVELY STRONG RIDGE
PASSING THROUGH ON SUNDAY EVENING. A STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK TROUGHING CONTINUES IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AND THEN EDGE INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING
THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES...BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
PEAKING AROUND MID WEEK...BUT STAYS MAINLY OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

AT LOWER LEVELS...DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA WILL MERGE WITH
MOISTURE IN A EASTWARD MOVING CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINNING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE JUST BEGUN TO FORM IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. INTENSE HEATING HAS GENERATED REPORTS OF FIRES IN
MAYAGUEZ AND WHIRLWINDS IN GUAYAMA. FIRES MAY HAVE ALSO BEEN SEEN
IN SALINAS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH MODEST EAST NORTHEAST
FLOW...SEA BREEZES HAVE BEEN PREDOMINANT OVER MOST COASTAL AREAS.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN MOISTURE
RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FROM FRIDAY TO TUESDAY FLOW CONTINUES
TO HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAT BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AS MOISTURE FILLS IN AT MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
STRONGER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE WEEK NEXT WEEK. AT PRESENT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE SHOWERY. WITH BETTER DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT A
GREATER FREQUENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY
MUCH ABOUT POSSIBLE FLOODING...BUT EXPECT THE BEST MOISTURE TO BE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC RATHER THAN PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 18/22Z OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF
TJMZ AND TJPS DUE TO ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS.ELSEWHERE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH...ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN
ABOVE 15 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN-MOST WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
UNTIL FRIDAY. SEAS INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 74 85 / 0 0 10 10
STT 72 84 74 86 / 0 0 10 10
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Quoting caneswatch:


Oh yeah, can't complain about it at all. You walk outside at midday and it feels great.


It's getting humid up here and cloudy. Looks as if some rain is pushing up into the FL Big Bend and is supposed to get here maybe later tonight.
Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Minnemike:
oh, and i'm thinking with both of wxmojo's images and context, i gave WAY too much credence of sensibility... i retract my earlier attempt to make sense of it as i further attempt to translate.


You obviously lack basic observation skills. ;)
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Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL. I mean, seriously.

Can you imagine? Some crackhead is going to google "acid, crack, marijuana, drugs" and the first result is going to be "Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog: 91L no concern..."

Well what do you expect on here?
Normal People?
Member Since: Januari 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2079
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Man I have a serious migraine today. Maybe I need to partake in some of these illegal substances as nothing else seems to work.


A Coke?
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Quoting nigel20:

nice temps


Oh yeah, can't complain about it at all. You walk outside at midday and it feels great.
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Looking back on things!
Its a pity there is no way to pulse a whole page of the blog, cos this last page I have copied and pasted and sent via e-mails to several people to demonstrate,via the http. of these pages to demonstrate, what can be achieved by people who in the main don't even know each other but somehow KNOW each other!
Member Since: Januari 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2079
Quoting jeffs713:

I think the last 40-something posts have shown that the majority of us either have partaken of illicit substances, or we are acting like we are currently partaking.
Isn't it nice to reminisce? Remembering our slightly wild teenage years that got us knowledgable about illicit drugs? Though I stood on the sidelines watching more than partaking, I would think it is somewhat dumb to think that most teenagers from the 60's did not experiment with grass as well as alcohol. Anyway, it was pretty wild around here then. I think it just went underground when the man got educated. Now, wouldn't know where to get it and probably can't afford it. I have stopped drinking too. By choice!Imagine that! Doesn't mean I am getting old.....even though I am :(
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 181846
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
80S.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE ADEQUATE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO GENERATE SHOWERS...LACK OF AN APPARENT
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER SHOULD LIMIT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN
10 PERCENT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS LIKELY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WELL SOUTH OF A DECAYING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BE THAT AS IT MAY...SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION ALONG ANY POTENTIAL LAND BREEZE
THAT PEELS OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PASS THROUGH
THE FLORIDA KEYS SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY SUNDAY. IN WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY. SUSTAINED NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS OF EYW AND MTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1953...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 88 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 18TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 59 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 75 84 74 84 / 05 10 20 20
MARATHON 75 86 74 86 / 05 10 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MSB
DATA ACQUISITION.....................ULRICH

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST



Member Since: Augusti 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38509
oh, and i'm thinking with both of wxmojo's images and context, i gave WAY too much credence of sensibility... i retract my earlier attempt to make sense of it amidst further attempts to translate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
I will post more about the gravity waves when I can find the time, for it is a complex subject requiring a lot of typing. In short form, a collapsing thunderstorm has a lot of potential energy as it falls to Earth, when it hits the surface, its like a rock dropping into the calm pond, and you see circular waves emanating from the point of contact. When rapidly forming thunderstorms crash into the tropopause and stratosphere, it too causes this ripple effect in the atmosphere, just way up high, and a somewhat different way.
many thing cause them, on many scales of atmosphere. big ships on water, overshooting tops, volcanoes... cool stuff Link
edit: the link is just a little sampling of the many flavors.. not a comprehensive source, fyi.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

I think the last 40-something posts have shown that the majority of us either have partaken of illicit substances, or we are acting like we are currently partaking.
And people wonder why they do not let there kids watch tv..lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21209
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It is "the absence of La-Nina". By the way waters of the E-Pac continue to warm fast so we could be in for a El-Nino sooner than people think so that should provide the south from TX to FL a wet year.


I appreciate your encouragement but most of south TX precip from El-Nino comes from a combination of E-Pac tropical storms & the subtropical west to east jet. Both need to be in place. The subtropical jet tends to be active when the monsoon trough (Intertropical Convergence Zone) is retreating southward. Which is in the fall.

I just don't see an increase in westerly winds from the tropical E-Pac as summer approaches. I wish, but it isn't likely :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

I think the last 40-something posts have shown that the majority of us either have partaken of illicit substances, or we are acting like we are currently partaking.


LOL. I mean, seriously.

Can you imagine? Some crackhead is going to google "acid, crack, marijuana, drugs" and the first result is going to be "Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog: 91L no concern..."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bluheelrtx:
Even in the northwest part of Harris County, we haven't seen more than a trace since the 2nd.
In Tomball, we have only picked up about 0.25" on Monday... and that was the only rain since the 2nd.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.