Tornado hits France; unprecedented April heat in Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:44 PM GMT on Maj 01, 2012

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A rare EF-1 tornado with 73 - 112 mph winds (117 - 180 kph) hit Toulouse, France on Sunday, causing minor damage that included collapsed walls, uprooted trees, and cars moved out of place. The tornado touched down 15 - 20 km south of Toulouse in Southwest France at 7:10 pm local time, and baseball-sized hail (4 cm) also hit the region. According to the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD), this was the first tornado in France in 2012. French tornadoes are rare; there were just three tornadoes in the country in 2011. The European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) (as summarized by Wikipedia) lists 15 tornadoes for all of Europe so far in 2012. Most of the twisters (nine) were in Turkey. For comparison, an average of 495 tornadoes touched down in the U.S. during the period January - April over the years 2009 - 2011. A key reason for the lack of tornadoes in Europe is that the atmosphere is usually not unstable enough. Tornadoes require warm, moist, low-density air near the surface, and cold, dry, high-density air aloft to provide a lot of instability. The Baltic Sea and North Sea to the north of Europe moderate cold air flowing south from the pole, reducing the amount of instability over Europe.


Video 1. A rare French tornado kicks up dust near Toulouse, France on April 29, 2012.

Unprecedented April heat hits Central and Eastern Europe
A European heat wave of unparalleled intensity for so early in the year smashed all-time April heat records over much of Central and Eastern Europe on Saturday and Sunday. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, new national April heat records were set in Belarus, Germany, Austria, Lithuania, Moldova, and Poland, and hundreds of stations in Germany, Austria, France, Italy, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Russia recorded their hottest April temperatures on record. Moscow hit 28.6°C (84°F) on Sunday, the hottest April reading in the city since record keeping began 130 years ago. The culprit for the heat wave and French tornado is a large low pressure system off the coast of France whose counter-clockwise flow has been pumping hot air from the Sahara Desert northwards into Europe. The low is expected to continue to bring unusually hot weather to most of Central and Eastern Europe for the remainder of the week.

New all-time April national heat records set over the past few days:

Poland: 31.7°C (89.18°F) at Tomaszow on 4/29
Germany: 32.2°C (90.0°F) at Munich on 4/28
Austria: 31.8°C (89.2°F) at Ranshoten on 4/28
Belarus: 30.4°C ( 86.7°F) at Zitovici on 4/29
Moldova 32.5°C
Lithuania

Jeff Masters

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021857Z - 022030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE TSTM THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF LOWER MI...WHICH COULD
INCLUDE A RISK FOR A TORNADO ASIDE FROM SEVERE HAIL/WIND.


DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE
SOUTHERN/TRAILING PORTION OF A NORTHEAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. A
RECENT INCREASE/DEEPENING OF THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN NOTED IN
EAST-CENTRAL LOWER MI PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THIS
ROUGHLY COINCIDES WITH A CORRIDOR OF MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE NEAR A
WEAK FRONTAL WAVE/WARM FRONT. THERMODYNAMIC MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM DETROIT...ALONG WITH SHORT-TERM RAP
GUIDANCE/SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...SUGGEST THAT CINH IS NOW
NEGLIGIBLE WITH A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL LOWER MI.

AMID RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORM MODES INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE SHOULD DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCUR...WITH A
TORNADO AND HAIL/WIND RISK CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY EXISTS REGARDING THE
LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF SAID SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT
MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MASS
CONVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SLOWLY ABATE WITH TIME.
SHORT-TERM TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

..GUYER/CARBIN.. 05/02/2012
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still cool up in Conn.....
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Speaking of hail

this was my windshield on Sunday near Lubbock, Texas





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347. skook
Guess they play baseball with golf balls in France.
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Good afternoon ILwthrfan. Just barely stayed north as I had hoped, maybe the standing water in my back yard can finally sink in. Sure looks to be losing its punch, but when it's this humid, who knows?
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
I don't know Hydrus.  It's been trying to all day, but I don't think there is much of a forcing mechanism, as this convection has outran its front.   The instability is plentiful. 






They just kinda of pulse up and then fold, then pulse up again along that outflow boundary.  Even the local NWS here says it will continue to decay...
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1254 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY OVER THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS FIRE ALONG ITS
PERIPHERY OR OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR
LOOPS...IT APPEARS KPIA AND KBMI STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT GETTING
A SHOWER OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR -SHRA AT THOSE SITES...WHILE ONLY MENTIONING VCTS
AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE
PERTURBED BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME S/SW ACROSS THE BOARD LATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
br class="Apple-interchange-newline">


Great post..Definitely looked better a couple hours ago..bbl
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Wow... The NAO is heading way negative, and it looks like it wants to stay down there for a while

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL VA...FAR N-CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021741Z - 021945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AREA FOR
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING INVERSION HAS QUICKLY MIXED OUT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED
INTO THE 80S WITH SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE
VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG. LATEST WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARM/DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE EWD
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL/STRONG WINDS. LIMITING
FACTORS INCLUDE WEAK SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AOB 30 KTS/ AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED RIDGING OVER
THE AREA. SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY BETTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN
VA...WHICH SUGGESTS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE IS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER... INSTABILITY IS
WEAKER. REGARDLESS...MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT ARE ANTICIPATED.

..MOSIER/CARBIN.. 05/02/2012


Member Since: Augusti 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14473
Quoting tornadodude:
Would appear the 12z GFS may be on crack lol



wish that would come here.
We never get above 3500j/kg, and that is only for summer pulse storms.
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Quoting hydrus:
We need the rain here in Middle TN. This line could be very strong in the next few hours..
I don't know Hydrus.  It's been trying to all day, but I don't think there is much of a forcing mechanism, as this convection has outran its front.   The instability is plentiful. 






They just kinda of pulse up and then fold, then pulse up again along that outflow boundary.  Even the local NWS here says it will continue to decay...
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1254 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY OVER THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS FIRE ALONG ITS
PERIPHERY OR OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR
LOOPS...IT APPEARS KPIA AND KBMI STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT GETTING
A SHOWER OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR -SHRA AT THOSE SITES...WHILE ONLY MENTIONING VCTS
AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE
PERTURBED BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME S/SW ACROSS THE BOARD LATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
br class="Apple-interchange-newline">


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Quoting LargoFl:


do one for Norwalk, CT
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where WILL they form and go this year?..here's one guess......
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Quoting Neapolitan:
There are a number of extant videos of the French event; this one below is HD quality, and shows the funnel cloud rather than the lower end dust displayed in the video above. It does appear to be based less on the meso and more on simple updraft-induced vorticity:



hmmmm pretty interesting
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Good Fishing this Year?......Link
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Quoting tornadodude:
Btw, Jeff, may have already been pointed out, but I believe that is a landspout
There are a number of extant videos of the French event; this one below is HD quality, and shows the funnel cloud rather than the lower end dust displayed in the video above. It does appear to be based less on the meso and more on simple updraft-induced vorticity:

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Member Since: Augusti 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36912
We are stating to become like texas stormtracker,no rain in sight............................................. ..
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Quoting tornadodude:
Would appear the 12z GFS may be on crack lol



Looks like I have plenty of CAPE tomorrow... 2500J/kg is pretty high for my area!
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Quoting Tygor:


Wow 20+ inches already this year? It hasn't rained here since mid-March and we are sitting at 8". It looks like August already with everything brown and dying. I can't imagine this summer if it doesn't rain. Really scary stuff.


Yes it is a scary prospect. I hope whatever has to happen to make this summer different than last does happen. We have had an insane amount of rain here so far this year. And it's taken exactly one week and an out of control fire to set everyone's nerves on edge. I can imagine it is only worse elsewhere in the state. Reading this crops report is not at all encouraging. With the exception of this corner of Texas things are pretty much as bad as you would expect them to be.

Texas Crop Report
May 01, 2012 19:45 GMT Link

COLLEGE STATION, Texas (AP) -- The following reports were compiled by AgriLife Extension Service for the week of May 1:

Central: The trend of above-average temperatures continued, and soils and pastures further dried out. Most small grains were harvested for hay or silage. Most hay was being stored. Grasshoppers were reported, and a big outbreak was expected without a rain soon. Some producers replanted coastal and Bermuda grass fields killed by the drought. Winter grasses continued to provide grazing, but were also depleting the soil moisture summer grasses will need to grow. Corn and sunflowers were growing very fast. Wheat neared being ready for harvest -- two to three weeks ahead of normal. Corn, cotton, and milo producers hoped for rain in early May. Livestock were in good condition.

Coastal Bend: Lack of rain and above-normal temperatures in April caused soil moisture levels to become short. Pecan growers were spraying for nut case-bearer early this year. Crops in western part of district were very moisture stressed.

Far West: Most of the region remained hot and dry, and the risk of wildfire increased. Temperatures reached 105 degrees in some areas. Lightning in Brewster County started four fires, and burned more than 12,000 acres. There were also lightning- caused fires in Presidio County. The continuing drought raised the specter of further herd sell offs. Cotton farmers were planting, but in many areas, planted acreage was expected to be reduced because of the lack of surface water for irrigation. Already-planted cotton was emerging in some areas. Supplemental feeding of cattle remained a constant expense for ranchers that still have stock.

Rolling Plains: Though technically it was still spring, daytime highs reached 100. Cottle County posted the nation's high temperature of 108 on April 25. Along with the heat, a dry spell set in. Soil moisture levels were very low, and producers were beginning to worry that 2012 will be a repeat of 2011. Pastures turned brown in a few days...


etc,etc,etc
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Could very well be a good wind event today, but I expect the tornado threat to remain limited
Member Since: Juni 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Cleveland has been lucky so far this year, I'm afraid our fortunes may turn for the worst today.
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Btw, Jeff, may have already been pointed out, but I believe that is a landspout
Member Since: Juni 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Would appear the 12z GFS may be on crack lol

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Cloud cover forecast in 84 hours..
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Tent was for an outdoor beer garden, so yes to expand capacity, but sounded like most were outside, saw rain coming and just got under tent to stay dry. Winds were more than they were expecting and broke all ropes securing it. Retired Ironworker died from blunt force trauma to head and neck. Owner didn't know that much wind/hail coming so folks not told to go inside. Said he will not be replacing tent.
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Quoting dabirds:
Had a post about that tent Mon. hydrus, quite a shame - bad time for it to blow through, a little after Cards game and little before Blues playoff game. Came up with little warning, though not sure why folks didn't head inside. Another tent about a mile west was also destroyed, but that nightclub was not yet open, so no injuries from it. Blues sent fans inside bowl as south side of ScottTrade center has lots of glass, though no problems there either.

5 to 7.5 in. locally since Sat., looks like may finally get two days to let soak in enough to mow, although rain just to north today, hope south winds keep it up there, they need it more than we do. Already in 80s with 60% humidity, A/Cs back on.
We need the rain here in Middle TN. This line could be very strong in the next few hours..
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Aren't tents set up because they extend the capacity of a venue? Probably too many people to fit safely inside the club at that point.

The french video is really interesting. It looks like a giant dust devil rather then a tornado. The people sounded so surprised about the hail as well. "That's not snow! That's ice!" I guess hail must be as rare as tornadoes since they tend to accompany each other.



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Had a post about that tent Mon. hydrus, quite a shame - bad time for it to blow through, a little after Cards game and little before Blues playoff game. Came up with little warning, though not sure why folks didn't head inside. Another tent about a mile west was also destroyed, but that nightclub was not yet open, so no injuries from it. Blues sent fans inside bowl as south side of ScottTrade center has lots of glass, though no problems there either.

5 to 7.5 in. locally since Sat., looks like may finally get two days to let soak in enough to mow, although rain just to north today, hope south winds keep it up there, they need it more than we do. Already in 80s with 60% humidity, A/Cs back on.
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Blob
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Link

Report warns of diminished forecasting ability because of severe reduction in number of satellites.
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1204 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

AMZ610-650-670-FLZ067-068-168-021815-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
1204 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

.NOW...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND
PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 25 MPH. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

$$
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.
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most exciting last 30 yrs on twc was john hopes coverage of andrew in 92
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FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1058 AM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN SOUTHERN INDIANA...

EAST FORK WHITE RIVER...

.LOWLAND FLOODING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST FORK WHITE RIVER IN
SOUTHERN BARTHOLOMEW AND NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES BY THURSDAY.
FLOODING WILL AFFECT SOME LOCAL AND STATE ROADS...LOW AGRICULTURAL
LAND AND SOME RIVER PARKS.

RAINFALL OF 3 TO MORE THAN 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN MUCH OF MARION...
JOHNSON...SHELBY...DECATUR AND BARTHOLOMEW COUNTIES SINCE EARLY
SATURDAY. MUCH OF THIS RAIN FELL ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SHARPS RISES
OCCURRED IN LOCAL STREAMS AS A RESULT OF THE RAIN ON TUESDAY.

RIVER FLOODING MAY LAST UP TO 3 DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE INTO FLOOD WATER. TURN AROUND AND GO
ANOTHER WAY. KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM FLOODED AREAS. RECREATIONAL AND
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO CHANGING RIVER
CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILED FLOOD INFORMATION GO TO WEATHER.GOV/IND ON THE WEB.
FROM THE BLUE MENU BAR ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE...CLICK ON RIVERS
AND LAKES.

&&

INC071-093-175-031458-
/O.NEW.KIND.FL.W.0028.120503T0900Z-120506T0417Z/
/SERI3.1.ER.120503T0900Z.120504T1800Z.120505T1617 Z.NO/
1058 AM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE EAST FORK WHITE RIVER AT SEYMOUR.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
* AT 10:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO
RISE TO NEAR 13.7 FEET BY FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* AT 13.5 FEET...LOWLAND FLOOD CONTINUES. JACKSON COUNTY ROAD 700 E
BEGINS TO FLOOD.

$$
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A long swath of hail and damaging winds can be seen, including one incident where a wind gust of 50 mph blew over an outdoor beer garden tent around 20:50 UTC (resulting in a number of injuries and one fatality).
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6.0 off the coast of Mexico,mother earth is restless...........Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 05:43:37 PM at epicenter
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3-Hr Precip, Cloud, and Moisture Forecasts
North America 00 UTC cras45naP03
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Surface Insolation

Surface insolation is the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface, and an image of it describes the variation of direct and indirect (scattered) solar radiation reaching the ground, and is assimilated into regional forecast models to improve the surface energy balance. Surface insolation is derived from the visible channel's measurements of reflectance. The insolation is calculated as the sum of solar radiation incident on the surface from both direct and indirect sources and also includes the effect of attenuation by clouds.
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I did not know Puerto Rico gets earthquakes, now i know.............
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Cloud Top Pressure

Cloud top pressure images describe the spatial variation of height and type of clouds over a region and are useful for nowcasting and forecast-model data assimilation. The presence or lack of clouds over a region is very important for modeling and diagnostic studies. When a cloud is present in a satellite image, it's height (or cloud top pressure) is an important additional parameter. Cloud top pressure is derived using a method that correlates the cloud top temperature in an infrared window channel to a thermodynamic profile from the MM5 forecast model. The cloud top pressure product incorporates the GHCC operational cloud mask, produced using a technique that relies upon a 11 - 3.7 µm difference image to enhance surface versus cloud contrast to delineate cloudy pixels from clear.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1040 AM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A RATHER
UNAMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW SHOWS SLIGHT TROUGHING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BEFORE
BENDING BACK TO THE NORTH INTO LONGWAVE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND/QUEBEC. ONE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW IS NOW
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND FORCING SEVERAL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOSER TO HOME WE
FIND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. 12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE IS NOT ALL THAT UNFAVORABLE TO
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION. THE PW VALUE IS AT 1.5"...WHICH IS ACTUALLY
QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY
. MID-LEVEL THETA-E VALUES ARE
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT ALSO NOT COMPLETELY HOSTILE TO DEEP
CONVECTION WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 322-325K.

AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA RESIDES WITHIN A REGION OF LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS. GRADIENT IS NOT AS TIGHT AS PREVIOUS DAYS...AND WITH GOOD
DIURNAL HEATING INLAND...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP SEA-BREEZE
CIRCULATION LATE IN THE DAY. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW HOWEVER WILL KEEP THESE SEA-BREEZES PINNED CLOSE TO THE
COAST
...WITH LITTLE INLAND PROPAGATION.

ALREADY SEEING A QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF TODAY`S CU FIELD...SO A PARTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST WILL GO AHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. 850
MB TEMPS IN THE 14-16C RANGE SHOULD MIX OUT TO AROUND 90 INLAND BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AT THE BEACHES...HOWEVER THE LATE START TO THE
SEA-BREEZES SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S. DUE
TO NOT UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS IN PLACE...IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT
MANY OF THE PARAMETRIZED AND CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE ARE
SHOWING SCT SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SEA-BREEZE WILL
BE HELD CLOSE TO THE COAST AND HENCE SO WILL THE BEST LOW LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ASCENT. CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE NEAR THE COAST WILL
GENERALLY DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST/WNW WITH THE DEEP LAYER FLOW...AND
THEREFORE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS (~40%) ALONG ALL THE COASTAL
ZONES...AND THEN TAPER RAIN CHANCES DOWN AS ONE TRAVELS INLAND. THIS
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE NATURE COAST
ZONES FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST.

LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
DURING THE MIDDLE/LATER EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS QUIET...DRY AND WARM. LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE INTERIOR
COOL SPOTS TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. HAVE A GREAT DAY!
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SPoRT Spectral Difference

Generated in the same way as the Fog Depth product, the SPoRT Spectral Difference product provides a different view of fog and low cloud locations. The product is at a slightly higher spatial resolution and can also be used to determine the location of low-level clouds.
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Cloud Mask

Jedlovec and Laws (2001) and Jedlovec and Laws (2003) describe the methodology for the GOES Sounder cloud mask. In summary, the cloud mask method applies two spatial tests and one threshold test on a 11 - 3.7 µm difference image. An additional test implemented since the writing of the paper is a temperature threshold test. This fourth test compares the temperature from the 11 µm channel to a 20-day clear-sky composite of 11 µm temperatures, and labels the pixel as cloudy if the difference is greater than the threshold. This additional test is intended to produce improvements mainly during the nighttime hours.
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Member Since: Augusti 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36912
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
The sirens just went off here in Saraland,al but i looked on the warning page and there's nothing. Have no clue to what's going on.

sheri


Some municipalities go through a siren test the first Wednesday of the month, or a different designated day each month. One city I lived in had ham radio volunteers listen at each siren and they called in with reports whether each siren functioned.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:
235:

I don't even want to contemplate the human consequences of what happens if that pool actually goes.

The entire nation of Japan will have to be evacuated and abandoned, if that's even physically possible.

And that's just for starters.

No telling what happens for the east coast of China, or Alaska and western U.S. and Canada.
it's gonna be just fine.. they are gonna appoint a couple of committees and start taking bribes... i mean bids, from connected.. i mean qualified, companies to get it fixed and most likely at US taxpayer expense. It's already a horrific mess but with the potential to become truly catastrophic. imho
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Maybe the afternoon sea breeze will smack into all this moisture and give us some rain........................
Member Since: Augusti 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36912
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
916 AM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

AMZ550-552-555-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064 -141-144-147-021830-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
916 AM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

.NOW...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH MOST AREAS LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL FOR ANY
EXISTING FIRES. COUNTY BURN BANS INCLUDE LAKE...OKEECHOBEE...
OSCEOLA...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL EXIST AT AREA BEACHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$

TES
Member Since: Augusti 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36912

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.