Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 ktbw 210002 
afdtbw

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
802 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

For the evening update...
a few showers persist this evening but will gradually
dissipate by midnight. A trough of low pressure surface and
aloft over North Florida will gradually sink south across
the Florida Peninsula tonight and Saturday. Deep southwest
flow persists over the region, and the atmosphere will
become increasingly unstable over the northern/central
coastal waters late tonight with numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms developing ahead of the surface trough.
Shower/thunderstorm activity will advect onshore late
tonight/early Saturday morning with locally heavy rain
possible. Still some uncertainty where the band of the most
concentrated shower/thunderstorm activity will
develop...but will likely be near or just north of the Tampa
Bay area. The heavy rain may cause localized flooding of
streets and low lying areas...especially if training cells
develop in the deep southwest flow. Will increase pops late
tonight over west central Florida and portions of the
nature...with highest pops near the coast. Highest quantitative precipitation forecast
totals will also likely occur near the coast. The area of
showers and thunderstorms will gradually push to the south
through the day on Saturday as the trough sinks south across
the region.

&&



Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...Beach hazards statement through Monday evening for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Sarasota.

Gulf waters...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations