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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
407 am EST Wed Jan 24 2018

Short term (today - thursday)...
upper level ridging extends over the Bahamas westward over southern
Florida and into the Gulf Mexico. Farther north, troughing extends
south from the Great Lakes region, but should not really impact the
local area through the week. As the trough moves northeast, the
ridging will further build into the area over the next couple of
days. On the surface, strong high pressure to the west ridges east
keeping dry and sunny conditions over the area through the end of
the week. Temperatures will be right around average or a couple of
degrees below average for the next couple of days.

&&

Long term (thursday night-tuesday)...
high pressure at the surface will be in place to the north/NE through
the end of the week, and then push off to the NE over the
Atlantic into the weekend. This will keep generally easterly
flow in place across the area with nightly evening surges
making for gusty conditions in the evenings, especially near
the coast. Then Saturday night, a weak area of low pressure
is expected to develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
merge with a cold front just to the northwest of the area. This
pre-frontal moisture will allow for some mainly isolated to
scattered showers Saturday night. The front will then move
through the area Sunday and Sunday night, allowing for
generally 60-80 percent rain chances Sunday, then 40-60
percent Sunday night. Some low residual rain chances will
continue to be in place for Monday as it clears out of the
area. Cooler and drier air then move into the area for the
rest of the period under high pressure. Lows will generally
be in the 40s and 50s each night through Sunday night, then
fall behind the front into the 40s to lower 50s for Monday
night. Highs will generally be in the 70s each day through
Sunday, and then fall into the upper 60s to mid 70s Monday
afternoon, and in the lower 60s to lower 70s for Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with north-northeast
winds less than 10 knots. No other aviation impacts expected.

&&

Marine...
high pressure will move east towards the East Coast keeping a north
to northeast wind flow over the next few days. As the high moves off
the East Coast, the winds will further veer to the east by Saturday
and gradually to the south by Sunday. Winds will approach Small
Craft Advisory level today and once again on Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Rain-free conditions will continue through the end
of the week and into the weekend. The next weather system is
expected to move over the coastal waters on Sunday bringing the only
chance of rain showers through the period. No other marine impacts
are expected.

&&

Fire weather...
relative humidity values could briefly approach critical levels
today for areas around I-4 northward and again on Thursday
afternoon, but then no concerns. No significant areas of fog or
reduced visibility are expected during the next several days once
the cold front moves through the area.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 67 47 67 51 / 0 0 0 0
fmy 74 53 71 54 / 0 0 0 0
gif 70 47 67 50 / 0 0 0 0
srq 66 50 67 50 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 67 43 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
spg 66 49 66 54 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood Florida out 20 to 60
nm-waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida out 20
to 60 nm-waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
Florida out 20 to 60 nm.

&&

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