U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Idag
Imorgon
Day Three

000 
acus01 kwns 161934 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 161933 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0233 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 


Valid 162000z - 171200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
showers and thunderstorms will persist from the coastal Carolinas 
through Florida this afternoon into the evening. No severe weather 
is expected. 


... 


The previous forecast remains on track with only a small adjustment 
necessary. 


.Dial.. 10/16/2017 


Previous discussion... /issued 1107 am CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/ 


A surface cold front is moving southeastward across the Carolinas 
into Georgia/FL, with the potential of scattered afternoon and evening 
showers and thunderstorms. Relatively poor lapse rates and weak 
effective shear suggest that storms will be disorganized, with 
minimal severe threat. 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


000 
acus11 kwns 151903 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 151903 
nyz000-paz000-wvz000-ohz000-152000- 


Mesoscale discussion 1719 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0203 PM CDT sun Oct 15 2017 


Areas affected...from eastern Ohio across Pennsylvania and into 
western/central New York 


Concerning...severe potential...watch possible 


Valid 151903z - 152000z 


Probability of watch issuance...40 percent 


Summary...a narrow line of low-topped showers and thunderstorms will 
develop eastward with a threat of strong to severe wind gusts this 
afternoon. 


Discussion...multiple segments of low-topped showers and storms are 
developing from southwest Ontario into eastern Ohio along an 
intensifying cold front. The strongest area of lift currently exists 
over Canada, and this is where sporadic lightning activity is 
occurring. 


Surface observations show gradually warming temperatures, with 
dewpoints in the lower 60s. The deeper moist plume exists mainly 
just ahead of the front, with drier air/lower precipitable water values from the 
Appalachians into New England. Temperatures aloft are not very cold 
except for well behind the front into Michigan, leading to only weak 
cape values. In addition, much of the instability exists mainly in 
the parts of the atmosphere. 


With mean winds in excess of 40 kt in the lowest few km, these 
showers and storms along the cold front will likely Transfer 
momentum to the surface with 40-50 mph wind gusts possible, and 
perhaps an isolated severe gust. The most likely area for severe 
winds would appear to be over New York where mean wind speeds are 
strongest, and in closest proximity to the shortwave trough. In 
addition, veering winds with height and sufficient srh may result in 
embedded areas of rotation in qlcs fashion. This, however, will be 
dependent on sufficient instability being present. Ample heating 
over New York lends some confidence of this possibility. 


.Jewell/Hart.. 10/15/2017 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...btv...aly...bgm...buf...ctp...pbz...cle... 


Latitude...Lon 45137382 44617383 43857421 42877523 41847651 40797811 
40338016 40308120 40628143 41138132 41808085 42798018 
43597918 43997754 44407616 44927537 45137464 45137382