U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Idag
Imorgon
Day Three

000 
acus01 kwns 160514 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 160513 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1213 am CDT Tue Oct 16 2018 


Valid 161200z - 171200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
widely scattered thunderstorms will occur from Texas eastward to the 
Carolinas. No severe weather is expected. 


..Texas through the Carolinas... 


A split flow pattern will persist today with a broad upper trough 
dominating the eastern states along with a cutoff upper low over Arizona. 
The southwestern extension of a cold front now moving off the 
Atlantic Seaboard will become quasistationary from the Carolinas 
into the northwest Gulf before resuming a very slow southeast 
movement later in this period. A broad zone of southwesterly winds 
aloft will persist across this region, maintaining isentropic ascent 
north of the front from Texas into the southeast states. Weak 
instability will exist within this regime, and showers with embedded 
thunderstorms are likely, with the more widespread activity within 
Post frontal zone. Stronger winds aloft will overlap the NC portion 
of the front today, but the thermodynamic environment will be very 
marginal, suggesting any severe potential should remain limited. 


.Dial/Gleason.. 10/16/2018 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


000 
acus11 kwns 160418 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 160418 
njz000-mdz000-dez000-160615- 


Mesoscale discussion 1586 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1118 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018 


Areas affected...east-central and southern New Jersey into Delaware 


Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 


Valid 160418z - 160615z 


Probability of watch issuance...5 percent 


Summary...a fast-moving low-topped band of showers may produce minor 
wind damage to mainly trees across east-central and southern New 
Jersey and Delaware during the next 1-2 hours (through 1-2 am edt), 
before moving off the Atlantic coast. 


Discussion...at 0410z, radar imagery showed a low-topped band of 
showers extending from northeast to southwest New Jersey (monmouth to Salem 
counties, respectively) to northern Delaware and the northern Chesapeake 
Bay area. This band of showers is moving to the east at 40 kt, 
while vwp data across the discussion area indicated strong westerly 
tropospheric winds, including 50-kt at 0.5-km above radar level. 
Trends in surface observations across Delaware into central New Jersey since 02z 
indicated rising temperatures ahead of the convective band. 
Modifying the 00z Wallops Island sounding with surface data at kacy 
resulted in buoyancy extending high enough for potential lightning 
production. Objective analyses showed ongoing destabilization ahead 
of the band of convection, with MUCAPE around 500 j/kg. Given these 
factors combined with the fast forward speed and strength of the 
winds just off the surface, a few locally strong wind gusts cannot 
be ruled out as the convective line advances eastward through 
0430-06z. 


.Peters/Edwards.. 10/16/2018 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...phi...akq... 


Latitude...Lon 39377573 39607528 40147403 39887404 39327439 38807487 
38487502 38417540 38467573 38917578 39377573