U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 250527 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1227 am CDT sun Jun 25 2017 

Valid 251200z - 261200z 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
the east-central New Mexico... 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
New Mexico...West Texas and southern Colorado... 

Severe thunderstorms with isolated large hail and wind damage are 
possible across parts of central and eastern New Mexico this 
afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms will also be 
possible across parts of southern New Mexico, southern Colorado and 
West Texas. 

..New Mexico/southern Colorado/West Texas... 
Northwest cyclonic mid-level flow will be in place today across The 
Rockies and High Plains. At the surface, southeasterly flow in the 
southern High Plains will reinforce a corridor of low-level moisture 
from West Texas into central New Mexico. Surface dewpoints should be 
in the upper 50s and lower 60s f along this corridor, which will 
contribute to moderate instability with MLCAPE possibly reaching the 
1500 to 2000 j/kg range. Thunderstorms will develop in the higher 
terrain of north-central New Mexico and southern Colorado, spreading 
southeastward into the lower elevations. It appears that a cluster 
of thunderstorms will organize to the southeast of Santa Fe and move 
southeastward across east-central New Mexico during the late 
afternoon and early evening eventually reaching West Texas. 

Forecast soundings between Santa Fe and Clovis, nm at 00z/Monday 
show moderate deep-layer shear owing mostly to directional shear in 
the low to mid levels and about 40 kt of flow in the upper levels. 
0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 kt range across the 
slight risk area suggesting that supercells will be possible in 
areas with the strongest instability. Supercells will have a threat 
for isolated large hail and wind damage. Due to steep low-level 
lapse rates, multicells that can organize into short line segments 
will also have a potential to produce wind damage. A marginal 
wind-damage threat could persist into the mid to late evening if a 
line segment can remain intact near the Texas-New Mexico state line. 

.Broyles/Mosier.. 06/25/2017 


Mesoscale Discussion

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sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 241942 

Mesoscale discussion 1147 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0242 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 

Areas affected...portions of nm and far south-central Colorado 

Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 

Valid 241942z - 242215z 

Probability of watch issuance...20 percent 

Summary...an isolated threat for large hail and strong to locally 
damaging winds should persist through early evening. Watch issuance 
is unlikely. 

Discussion...beneath upper ridging centered over northern Mexico and 
the southwest, persistent weak low-level easterly flow across nm and 
south-central Colorado is encouraging initially isolated convective 
development across west-central nm. Additional thunderstorms are 
expected to develop across nm this afternoon aided by terrain-driven 
circulations. Visible satellite imagery shows almost total clearing 
along and west of the Central Mountain chain of nm, and temperatures 
have warmed into the 80s and lower 90s across lower terrain. Modest 
low-level moisture characterized by upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints 
is present across this region, and combined with steep mid-level 
lapse rates and diurnal heating, MLCAPE generally ranging 500-1000 
j/kg has developed. Although mid-level northwesterly winds weaken 
with southern extent across nm, there is sufficient mid-level flow 
to support mainly 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear. This should be 
sufficient to weakly organize thunderstorm updrafts, and isolated 
instances of large hail and strong to locally damaging winds may 
occur with any thunderstorms across this region through the 
remainder of the afternoon and continuing into the early evening. 
There may be some potential for loosely organized convective 
clusters to develop and move southeastward across western/central 
nm, perhaps posing a slightly greater wind threat with time. 
Regardless, the overall severe threat will likely remain too 
isolated to warrant watch issuance due to the marginal 
thermodynamic/kinematic environment. 

.Gleason/guyer.. 06/24/2017 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 33790887 34940870 35480805 37610505 37470418 36520402 
35140449 32910558 31840710 31820819 31510824 31560899