U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 180546 
Storm Prediction Center ac 180545 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1145 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 

Valid 191200z - 201200z 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across much of 
Mississippi into Alabama... 

Scattered storms, some severe, are expected across parts of the Gulf 
Coast states on Saturday with damaging wind gusts and perhaps a 
tornado or two. 

A potent shortwave trough will continue east out of Texas and into the 
lower MS valley during the day with low pressure moving from eastern 
Arkansas across Kentucky and Tennessee. A cold front will trail southward from the low, 
progressing across MS and Alabama during the day and into northwest Georgia by 
00z. Southerly surface winds will allow low 60s f dewpoints to 
return north, with strong veering winds with height favoring severe 
storms despite marginal instability. 

Overnight, the surface low will move off the Delmarva with the cold 
front affecting eastern NC into Sunday morning. Here, instability 
for strong or severe storms is forecast to remain mostly offshore. 

..southeast la...MS...al...FL Panhandle...southwest Georgia... 
ongoing storms across the lower MS valley Saturday morning are 
forecast to consolidate along the cold front into central MS by 18z, 
and continue eastward into Alabama through afternoon. Large looping 
hodographs combined with sufficient instability will favor line 
segments, possibly qlcs in nature, or perhaps a supercell or two 
capable of a brief tornado. Damaging winds appear to be the primary 
threat across the slight risk area with 850 mb winds of 50-60 kt. By 
evening, as the front progresses into GA, the risk is expected to 
wane as instability becomes less, and large-scale lift shifts 
northeast of the area. Still, a few damaging wind gusts may occur 
into Georgia. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: 5% - slight 
wind: 15% - slight 
hail: 5% - marginal 

.Jewell.. 01/18/2019