- Day Three
acus02 kwns 180546
Storm Prediction Center ac 180545
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019
Valid 191200z - 201200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across much of
Mississippi into Alabama...
Scattered storms, some severe, are expected across parts of the Gulf
Coast states on Saturday with damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado or two.
A potent shortwave trough will continue east out of Texas and into the
lower MS valley during the day with low pressure moving from eastern
Arkansas across Kentucky and Tennessee. A cold front will trail southward from the low,
progressing across MS and Alabama during the day and into northwest Georgia by
00z. Southerly surface winds will allow low 60s f dewpoints to
return north, with strong veering winds with height favoring severe
storms despite marginal instability.
Overnight, the surface low will move off the Delmarva with the cold
front affecting eastern NC into Sunday morning. Here, instability
for strong or severe storms is forecast to remain mostly offshore.
..southeast la...MS...al...FL Panhandle...southwest Georgia...
ongoing storms across the lower MS valley Saturday morning are
forecast to consolidate along the cold front into central MS by 18z,
and continue eastward into Alabama through afternoon. Large looping
hodographs combined with sufficient instability will favor line
segments, possibly qlcs in nature, or perhaps a supercell or two
capable of a brief tornado. Damaging winds appear to be the primary
threat across the slight risk area with 850 mb winds of 50-60 kt. By
evening, as the front progresses into GA, the risk is expected to
wane as instability becomes less, and large-scale lift shifts
northeast of the area. Still, a few damaging wind gusts may occur
..maximum risk by hazard...
Tornado: 5% - slight
wind: 15% - slight
hail: 5% - marginal