Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 171800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 92s) has persisted near 
22.7s 34.6e, approximately 78 nm north-northwest of maxixe, 
Mozambique. Animated enhanced inrafred imagery shows an elongated, 
but well-organized low level circulation (llc) currently situated 
over land with minimal, flaring convection over the llc, and a Ball 
of deep convection sheared to the east. A 171401z mhs NOAA-19 89ghz 
microwave image reveals minimal deep convection over the llc. 92s is 
currently in a marginal environment for development with strong dual 
channel outflow offset by marginal (15 to 20 knots) vertical wind 
shear (vws) and land interaction. Global models are in good 
agreement that 92s will track northeastward crossing oversea where 
it will be in a much more favorable environment for development. 
However, models show that 92s will likely turn back into land after 
only a few days, creating a very short window for potential 
development. Additionally, models show the potential for dry, cooler 
air to be brought equatorward into 92s, inhibiting its potential for 
development. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 
20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1002 
mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical 
cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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