Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 180600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/180600z-190600zjan2019//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 01w) previously located
near 5.8n 144.0e, is now located near 6.6n 138.3e, approximately 229
nm east of Palau. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts
low level cloud lines wrapping tightly into a well defined low level
circulaton center. A 180033z ascat pass shows numerous 15-20 knot
winds with isolated 20-25 knot winds on the periphery. The upper
level environment is marginally favorable with low to moderate (15-
20kt) vws and strong divergence. Sea surface temperatures remain
favorable (28-30c). Global models are in agreement with a continued
westward track and gradual development prior to landfall over
mindanao. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 17 to 22
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours remains medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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